Collaborative Research: Stochastic Variability of Seasonal Freezing and Thawing at Local, Regional and Hemispheric Scales Under Modern and Predicted Climate

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Climate warming may have serious impacts on permafrost and the soil active layer. This three-year study will investigate factors affecting the average permafrost conditions as well as its spatial variability. Theoretical procedures for separating deterministic and stochastic components of the spatial variability of active layer thickness will be developed. These models will be linked to climate predictions produced from global climate models in order to predict the regional conditions of the soil and permafrost. These model results will then be validated using data collected at 69 sites included in the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) network and at 120 Russian stations, as well as new data from 10 selected Russian sites. Thus, maps will be developed which give the mean parameters describing the active layer thickness and also its variability on local to regional scales.