Experimental and Analytical Comparison of Methods for DesignAgainst Uncertainty

小行星9622051 该奖项为基于概率的设计和基于模糊集的设计的相对优点的调查提供资金。本研究将从三个方面来探讨这两种方法的异同。首先，对概率分析和模糊集分析的基本理论进行检查，以确定根本的差异。其次，数值实验将寻求提供洞察力， 这两种方法所体现的不同设计策略。 最后，实验室实验将显示如何以及使用这两种方法获得的设计执行时，建立。预计设计者可获得的不确定性信息量对这两种方法的实用性有重大影响。因此，研究将针对不同程度的现有信息进行，从完整的统计知识到非常模糊的不确定性措施。概率设计和模糊集设计这两个领域的专家将定期审查这项研究，以帮助确保质量控制。 如果成功，这项研究将导致更好地了解概率设计和模糊集设计之间的差异和相似之处。此外，预计该研究将确定一种方法比另一种方法更合适的条件，以帮助设计人员根据他们对不确定性的了解程度选择一种方法。 最后，预计这项研究将有助于缓解这两种方法的支持者之间的激烈竞争。 最终的结果应该是提高设计人员的能力，使他们能够设计出明确考虑到不确定性的设计。

9622051 Haftka This award provides funds for an investigation into the relative merits of probability based design and fuzzy-set based design. The study will use three means for probing the differences and similarities of the two approaches. First, an examination of the underlying theories of probability analysis and fuzzy-set analysis will seek to identify fundamental differences. Second, numerical experiments will seek to provide insight into the different design strategies embodied in the two approaches. Finally, laboratory experiments will show how well designs obtained using the two approaches perform when built. It is expected that the amount of information on uncertainties available to the designer has a major effect on the utility of the two approaches. Therefore the study will be conducted for different levels of available information ranging from complete statistical knowledge to very vague measures of the uncertainties. The study will be reviewed periodically by experts in the two fields of probabilistic design and fuzzy-set design to help assure quality control. If successful this study will lead to better understanding of the differences and similarities between probabilistic design and fuzzy-set design. Furthermore, it is expected that the study will identify conditions under which one approach is more appropriate than the other, so as to help designers select one method over the other depending on the amount of knowledge they have on the uncertainties. Finally, it is expected that the study will help diffuse the intense rivalry between proponents of the two methods. The end result should be an improvement in the ability of designers to produce designs that take explicitly into account uncertainty.