Experimental and Analytical Comparison of Methods for DesignAgainst Uncertainty

这个奖项为研究基于概率的设计和基于模糊集的设计的相对优点提供了资金。本研究将使用三种方法来探讨这两种方法的异同。首先，对概率分析和模糊集分析的基本理论的检查将寻求找出根本的区别。其次，数值实验将寻求提供洞察不同的设计策略体现在这两种方法。最后，实验室实验将展示使用两种方法获得的设计在构建时的表现。可以预期，设计者所能获得的关于不确定性的信息量对这两种方法的效用有重大影响。因此，研究将针对不同水平的可用信息进行，范围从完整的统计知识到非常模糊的不确定性测量。该研究将由概率设计和模糊集设计两个领域的专家定期审查，以帮助确保质量控制。如果研究成功，将有助于更好地理解概率设计与模糊集设计之间的异同。此外，预计该研究将确定一种方法比另一种方法更合适的条件，从而帮助设计师根据他们对不确定性的了解程度选择一种方法。最后，预计这项研究将有助于消除两种方法的支持者之间的激烈竞争。最终的结果应该是设计师在设计中明确考虑到不确定性的能力的提高。

9622051 Haftka This award provides funds for an investigation into the relative merits of probability based design and fuzzy-set based design. The study will use three means for probing the differences and similarities of the two approaches. First, an examination of the underlying theories of probability analysis and fuzzy-set analysis will seek to identify fundamental differences. Second, numerical experiments will seek to provide insight into the different design strategies embodied in the two approaches. Finally, laboratory experiments will show how well designs obtained using the two approaches perform when built. It is expected that the amount of information on uncertainties available to the designer has a major effect on the utility of the two approaches. Therefore the study will be conducted for different levels of available information ranging from complete statistical knowledge to very vague measures of the uncertainties. The study will be reviewed periodically by experts in the two fields of probabilistic design and fuzzy-set design to help assure quality control. If successful this study will lead to better understanding of the differences and similarities between probabilistic design and fuzzy-set design. Furthermore, it is expected that the study will identify conditions under which one approach is more appropriate than the other, so as to help designers select one method over the other depending on the amount of knowledge they have on the uncertainties. Finally, it is expected that the study will help diffuse the intense rivalry between proponents of the two methods. The end result should be an improvement in the ability of designers to produce designs that take explicitly into account uncertainty.