How is the stratospheric water vapour affected by climate change, and which processes are responsible? (SHARPI-WV)

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Observational data sets of water vapour (H2O) and HDO from MIPAS and H2O from SCIAMACHY will be extended and further improved in data quality. An “all-satellite” data set containing data of SAGE, HALOE, SMR, MLS, MIPAS and SCIAMACHY and covering 30 years from 1984 to 2014 will be generated by appropriate data merging. The MIPAS and SCIAMACHY data record will be analysed regarding the anomalies of the time series (tape recorder, monsoon systems), potential trends, and correlations to other atmospheric quantities like tropical tropopause temperature, with some focus on the HDO data record. Similar analysis will be performed with improved transient and sensitivity model runs available within SHARP. H2O modelling will be included in the Lagrangian version of EMAC, and case process studies will be performed to analyse the H2O transport into the stratosphere. The modelled H2O fields will be compared to H2O data sets made available from MIPAS. For ECHAM5/MESSy, a higher resolved version not producing the cold and dry bias in the tropopause will be sought for. The CMIP5 simulations of MPI-M will be analysed regarding water vapour, and internal variability will be compared to climate change signals. The role of methane for the stratospheric water vapour budget will be re-assessed in the light of recent changes in methane growth, both from the observational and model data side.