How Will Post-Landfall Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Impacts Respond to Climate Change?

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) typically weaken when making landfall. Nevertheless, weakening TCs can exact damages, owing to persistent rainfall and sustained winds. Various factors influence the decay rate of post-landfall TCs. Local effects (like land-surface and soil characteristics and geographical location) are important. However, less-studied effects like TC interactions with the extratropical circulation during or after landfall are also important and could become more relevant in a warming climate. This proposal addresses how the post-landfall TC decay rate and its impacts may change in a warming climate, emphasizing on the varying decay rate resulting from changes in landfall location and its proximity to the jet stream. This emphasis builds directly on the investigator’s recent work suggesting a poleward shift in the extratropical transition of TC activity in the North Atlantic basin with climate warming due to the strengthening of the TC-jet stream interactions. The tasks include conducting idealized and real-data case studies in pseudo-global warming scenarios and analyzing observations as well as TC-resolving global model simulations. Leveraging a hierarchy of analyses and modeling strategies, the work will assess the shifts in TC activity and landfall location, the changes in precipitation and the extent of damaging winds, and the frequency and strength of interaction with mid-latitude jets. In collaboration with scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and state agencies, the activities will train graduate and undergraduate students from underrepresented groups.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.