How Will Post-Landfall Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Impacts Respond to Climate Change?

热带气旋登陆后的强度和影响将如何应对气候变化？

• 批准号: 2141467
• 负责人: Gary Lackmann
• 金额: $ 53.37万
• 依托单位: North Carolina State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-03-01 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2141467&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: How; Will; Post; Landfall; Tropical

Tropical cyclones (TCs) typically weaken when making landfall. Nevertheless, weakening TCs can exact damages, owing to persistent rainfall and sustained winds. Various factors influence the decay rate of post-landfall TCs. Local effects (like land-surface and soil characteristics and geographical location) are important. However, less-studied effects like TC interactions with the extratropical circulation during or after landfall are also important and could become more relevant in a warming climate. This proposal addresses how the post-landfall TC decay rate and its impacts may change in a warming climate, emphasizing on the varying decay rate resulting from changes in landfall location and its proximity to the jet stream. This emphasis builds directly on the investigator’s recent work suggesting a poleward shift in the extratropical transition of TC activity in the North Atlantic basin with climate warming due to the strengthening of the TC-jet stream interactions. The tasks include conducting idealized and real-data case studies in pseudo-global warming scenarios and analyzing observations as well as TC-resolving global model simulations. Leveraging a hierarchy of analyses and modeling strategies, the work will assess the shifts in TC activity and landfall location, the changes in precipitation and the extent of damaging winds, and the frequency and strength of interaction with mid-latitude jets. In collaboration with scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and state agencies, the activities will train graduate and undergraduate students from underrepresented groups.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

热带气旋 (TC) 在登陆时通常会减弱。然而，由于持续降雨和持续大风，热带气旋减弱可能造成损害。影响登陆后热带气旋衰减率的因素有多种。局部影响（如地表和土壤特征以及地理位置）很重要。然而，诸如热带气旋在登陆期间或登陆后与温带环流相互作用等研究较少的影响也很重要，并且在气候变暖的情况下可能变得更加重要。该提案讨论了在气候变暖的情况下登陆后TC衰减率及其影响如何变化，强调了由于登陆位置及其与急流的接近程度的变化而导致的不同衰减率。这一重点直接建立在研究人员最近的工作基础上，该工作表明，由于热带气旋与急流相互作用的加强，随着气候变暖，北大西洋盆地热带气旋活动的温带转变发生了向极地转变。这些任务包括在伪全球变暖情景中进行理想化和真实数据案例研究，分析观测结果以及解决TC的全球模型模拟。利用一系列分析和建模策略，这项工作将评估热带气旋活动和登陆位置的变化、降水的变化和破坏性风的程度，以及与中纬度急流相互作用的频率和强度。这些活动将与国家大气研究中心和州机构的科学家合作，培训来自代表性不足群体的研究生和本科生。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。