Japan JSPS Program: Optimal Initial Conditions for Growth in an Intermediate Ocean-Atmosphere Model of the Pacific Which Generates Both the Annual Cycle and ENSO

Thompson 9703995该奖项支持日本科学促进会为Christopher J.Thompson博士在日本札幌市北海道大学环境地球科学研究生院设立的为期24个月的博士后奖学金。汤普森博士将与海洋和大气科学系副教授谢尚平博士合作开展一项研究项目，题为“生成年度循环和ENSO的太平洋中间海洋-大气模式中增长的最佳初始条件”。这项拟议研究的重点是建立和分析一个中等规模的赤道太平洋模式，该模式将再现称为厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)的大气模式的年度循环和年际循环。ENSO是一个不规则的、三至七年的海洋表面温度(SST)循环，其最广为人知的方面是南美洲海岸周期性和异常变暖，科学界将这种模式称为厄尔尼诺。ENSO还作为其他重要季节天气模式的预报器，一个具体的例子是亚洲季风，它继续在南亚和东亚造成洪水或干旱。通过以前的研究，已经实现了对ENSO的最低程度的可预测性，但这项研究仅限于开发再现ENSO循环或年度循环的模型。现有的模型还没有成功地再现这两种模式或预测它们的组合效应。因此，拟议研究的目的是发展这一复杂模式，并对该模式应用最优初始条件分析，以确定可能导致大气中大量瞬时增长的结构。***

Thompson 9703995 This award supports a 24 month Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Postdoctoral Fellowship for Dr. Christopher J. Thompson at the Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan. Dr. Thompson will work with Dr. Shang-Ping Xie, Associate Professor in the Division of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, on a research project entitled, "Optimal Initial Conditions for Growth in an Intermediate Ocean-Atmosphere Model of the Pacific that Generates the Annual Cycle and ENSO." This proposed research emphasizes the construction and analysis of an intermediate- sized model of the Equatorial Pacific that will reproduce both the annual cycle and the inter-annual cycle of the atmospheric pattern known as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is an irregular, three to seven year sea surface temperature (SST) cycle, the most well known aspect of which is the periodic and anomalous warming of the South America coast, a pattern referred to in the scientific community as El Nino. ENSO also acts as a predictor for other important seasonal weather patterns, one specific example being the Asian Monsoon, which continues to cause either floods or droughts in South and East Asia. A minimal degree of predictability for ENSO has been achieved through previous research, but this research has been confined to the development of models that reproduce either the ENSO cycle or the annual cycle. No existing model has successfully reproduced both patterns or predicted their combined effects. As such, the purpose of the proposed research is to develop this complex model and apply optimal initial condition analysis to that model in order to identify those structures which may lead to large transient growth in the atmosphere. ***