Japan JSPS Program: Optimal Initial Conditions for Growth in an Intermediate Ocean-Atmosphere Model of the Pacific Which Generates Both the Annual Cycle and ENSO

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Thompson 9703995 This award supports a 24 month Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Postdoctoral Fellowship for Dr. Christopher J. Thompson at the Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan. Dr. Thompson will work with Dr. Shang-Ping Xie, Associate Professor in the Division of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, on a research project entitled, "Optimal Initial Conditions for Growth in an Intermediate Ocean-Atmosphere Model of the Pacific that Generates the Annual Cycle and ENSO." This proposed research emphasizes the construction and analysis of an intermediate- sized model of the Equatorial Pacific that will reproduce both the annual cycle and the inter-annual cycle of the atmospheric pattern known as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is an irregular, three to seven year sea surface temperature (SST) cycle, the most well known aspect of which is the periodic and anomalous warming of the South America coast, a pattern referred to in the scientific community as El Nino. ENSO also acts as a predictor for other important seasonal weather patterns, one specific example being the Asian Monsoon, which continues to cause either floods or droughts in South and East Asia. A minimal degree of predictability for ENSO has been achieved through previous research, but this research has been confined to the development of models that reproduce either the ENSO cycle or the annual cycle. No existing model has successfully reproduced both patterns or predicted their combined effects. As such, the purpose of the proposed research is to develop this complex model and apply optimal initial condition analysis to that model in order to identify those structures which may lead to large transient growth in the atmosphere. ***