Research on Dynamic Models of Earnings and Human Capital Accumulation in Partial and General Equilibrium settings

这其中的一个主要目标。该项目是对美国经济的技能总供给的建设。 这条供给曲线将成为一种工具，用于探索税收改革、社会保障改革、学费补贴提案以及其他旨在促进经济中技能形成的政策可能产生的影响。 将对一系列广泛的政策建议进行评估。 虽然主要关注的是税收政策和人力资本积累，但也将分析税收如何影响资本积累，从而影响工资;就业补贴如何影响技能形成和就业;以及教育和培训补贴如何影响实物资本形成和工资差异。 公共政策的短期和长期影响将在动态一般均衡框架中考虑。 将开展以下工作：（A）。制定和估计收入，劳动力供应，学校教育和在职培训的微观经济生命周期模型，可用作严格合理的政策模拟的输入。 项目这一部分的一个主要重点是对人力资本生产函数进行估计，这是对用于模拟政策影响的内生增长模型和公共财政模型的主要投入。(B)将对目前和过去的人力资本税收和补贴待遇进行全面评估。(C)将一般均衡预测与微观估计相结合是本项目的一个显著特点。 如果要运用现代动态公共财政的见解系统地研究替代政策的效果，一般均衡框架是必不可少的。一个主要的目标是改善一类一般均衡模拟模型的经验基础。目前广泛使用的校准方法采用从假设一个经济环境的模型中估计的微观参数，并将其不加修改地转移到非常不同的经济环境中。 这种做法增加了用于模拟宏观模型的估计数不一致的可能性。 模型的模拟和微观估计将被整合，以确保微观和宏观估计的一致性。

A major goal of this. project is the construction of the aggregate supply of skills to the U.S. economy. This supply curve will be a tool for exploring the likely impacts of tax reforms, social security reforms, proposals for tuition subsidies, and other policies designed to promote the formation of skill in the economy. A broad array of policy proposals will be evaluated. Although the main focus is on tax policy and human capital accumulation, how taxes affect capital accumulation and hence wages; how employment subsidies affect skill formation and employment; and how subsidies to education and training affect physical capital formation and wage differentials will also be analyzed. Both short run and long run impacts of public policies will be considered in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. The following tasks will be undertaken: (A). To formulate and estimate microeconomic life-cycle models of earnings, labor supply, schooling and on the job training that can be used as inputs into rigorously justified policy simulations. A major focus of this portion of the project is to produce estimates of the human capital production function that is the principal input into endogenous growth models and models in public finance used to simulate the impacts of policies. (B) A comprehensive assessment of the current and past tax and subsidy treatment of human capital will be undertaken. (C) Aligning general equilibrium forecasts with micro estimates is a distinctive feature of this project. A general equilibrium framework is essential if the insights of modern dynamic public finance are to be applied to systematically investigate the effects of alternative policies. A major goal is to improve the empirical foundations of a class of general equilibrium simulation models. Current widely used calibration methods take micro parameters estimated from models that assume one economic environment and transport them without modification to very different economic settings. This practice raises the possibility of inconsistency in the estimates used to simulate a macro model. The simulation and micro estimation of the model will be integrated to ensure consistency of micro and macro estimates.