Research on Dynamic Models of Earnings and Human Capital Accumulation in Partial and General Equilibrium settings

这是一个主要目标。项目是对美国经济的总技能供给的建设。这条供给曲线将成为探索税收改革、社会保障改革、学费补贴提案和其他旨在促进经济中技能形成的政策可能产生的影响的工具。将评估一系列广泛的政策建议。虽然主要关注的是税收政策和人力资本积累，税收如何影响资本积累，从而影响工资；就业补贴对技能形成和就业的影响此外，还将分析教育和培训补贴如何影响物质资本形成和工资差异。公共政策的短期和长期影响将在动态一般均衡框架中加以考虑。将执行下列任务：(A)。制定和估计收入、劳动力供应、学校教育和在职培训的微观经济生命周期模型，这些模型可以用作严格合理的政策模拟的输入。该项目的这一部分的一个主要重点是对人力资本生产函数进行估计，这是用于模拟政策影响的内生增长模型和公共财政模型的主要投入。(B)将全面评估目前和过去对人力资本的税收和补贴待遇。(C)使一般均衡预测与微观估计相一致是这个项目的一个显著特点。如果要将现代动态公共财政的见解应用于系统地调查替代政策的影响，那么一般均衡框架是必不可少的。一个主要目标是改进一类一般均衡模拟模型的经验基础。目前广泛使用的校准方法是从假设一种经济环境的模型中估计出的微观参数，然后不经修改地将其传输到非常不同的经济环境中。这种做法增加了用于模拟宏观模型的估计不一致的可能性。将模型的仿真和微观估计相结合，保证微观和宏观估计的一致性。

A major goal of this. project is the construction of the aggregate supply of skills to the U.S. economy. This supply curve will be a tool for exploring the likely impacts of tax reforms, social security reforms, proposals for tuition subsidies, and other policies designed to promote the formation of skill in the economy. A broad array of policy proposals will be evaluated. Although the main focus is on tax policy and human capital accumulation, how taxes affect capital accumulation and hence wages; how employment subsidies affect skill formation and employment; and how subsidies to education and training affect physical capital formation and wage differentials will also be analyzed. Both short run and long run impacts of public policies will be considered in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. The following tasks will be undertaken: (A). To formulate and estimate microeconomic life-cycle models of earnings, labor supply, schooling and on the job training that can be used as inputs into rigorously justified policy simulations. A major focus of this portion of the project is to produce estimates of the human capital production function that is the principal input into endogenous growth models and models in public finance used to simulate the impacts of policies. (B) A comprehensive assessment of the current and past tax and subsidy treatment of human capital will be undertaken. (C) Aligning general equilibrium forecasts with micro estimates is a distinctive feature of this project. A general equilibrium framework is essential if the insights of modern dynamic public finance are to be applied to systematically investigate the effects of alternative policies. A major goal is to improve the empirical foundations of a class of general equilibrium simulation models. Current widely used calibration methods take micro parameters estimated from models that assume one economic environment and transport them without modification to very different economic settings. This practice raises the possibility of inconsistency in the estimates used to simulate a macro model. The simulation and micro estimation of the model will be integrated to ensure consistency of micro and macro estimates.