Racial Polarization and Realignment in the New South

在这项研究中，1980年至1996年间县、州和联邦选举的选区数据与选区的种族构成数据相匹配，以分析南部的种族两极分化和重新调整。种族极化被定义为黑人和白人（或适当的拉丁裔）对民主党的支持差异。本研究使用生态推理程序（EI）估算了南方几乎所有县、州和联邦选举中黑人、白人和拉丁裔对民主党和共和党的支持，并给出了置信区间。在质疑或支持设立少数族裔占多数的选区的案件中，诉讼当事人和法官很可能严重依赖这些估计。过去的研究主要关注的是两极分化是否会阻碍少数族裔官员的当选，而这次的调查评估的是民主党支持率的种族差距。与法院和媒体经常表达的传统观点相反，这位首席研究员假设，随着黑人继续几乎一致地投票给民主党，而更多的白人投票给共和党，种族两极分化已经加剧。对种族两极分化的估计使得测试不同的理论成为可能，这些理论解释了为什么种族两极分化在不同的地点、时间和职位上有所不同。该研究比较了白人抵制理论与其他非种族理论的力量。白人反弹理论指出，生活在黑人比例高的地区的白人通常比黑人很少的地区的白人投票更保守，但一些人推测，黑人和白人之间的经济差距解释了种族两极分化。这项调查测试了关于种族重新划分和重新调整之间关系的几种理论。虽然有几项研究在联邦层面上考察了种族重新划分对党派的影响，但这项研究是第一次探讨种族重新划分是否会导致共和党在州立法或县议会中获胜。这项调查产生的数据集将对其他有兴趣探索这一重要主题的学者具有巨大的价值。

In this study precinct data for county, state, and federal elections between 1980 and 1996 are matched with data on the racial composition of precincts in order to analyze racial polarization and realignment in the south. Racial polarization is defined as the difference in support for the Democrats among blacks and whites (or Latinos where appropriate). Using an ecological inference program (EI) this study estimates, with confidence intervals, support for Democrats and Republicans among blacks, whites, and Latinos in every county in the south for virtually all county, state, and federal elections. Litigants and judges in cases challenging or supporting the creation of majority-minority districts are likely to rely heavily on these estimates. Unlike past studies which have focused primarily on whether polarization prevents the election of minority officials, this investigation gauges the size of the racial gap in support for the Democrats. Contrary to the conventional wisdom often expressed by the courts and the media, the principal investigator hypothesizes that racial polarization has increased as blacks continue to vote nearly unanimously for Democrats and greater numbers of whites cast ballots for Republicans. The estimates of racial polarization make it possible to test competing theories for why racial polarization varies across location, time, and office. The study compares the strength of the white backlash theory with other nonracial theories. The white backlash theory states that whites who live in areas with a high percentage of blacks usually vote more conservatively than whites in areas with few blacks, but some speculate that the economic gap between blacks and whites explains racial polarization. The investigation tests several theories about the nexus between racial redistricting and realignment. While several studies examine the partisan impact of racial redistricting at the federal level, this study is the first to explore whether racial redistricting resulted in Republican state legislative or county council gains. The data set produced by this investigation will be of immense value to other scholars interested in exploring this important topic.