The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics of the Coupled Atmosphere- Ocean System

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Abstract ATM-9710285 Vallis, Geoffrey K. University of California, Santa Cruz The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics of the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System The PI will investigate the geophysical fluid dynamics of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system with novel but dynamically appropriate models. The effort will concentrate on mid-latitude dynamics, and primarily on phenomena with timescales of a decade and longer. The goal of the project is to isolate and understand specific and robust mechanisms which produce variability and limit predictability on these timescales. The approach the PI will take is different from, but complementary to, more conventional approaches using GCMs. The PI uses rational approximations of the primitive equations of motion to derive models appropriate for the time and space scales of interest, for both atmosphere and ocean. These are then coupled and integrated numerically. By basing the models on rational approximations to the underlying dynamics, the models are reliable indicators of the underlying mechanisms occurring in the real atmosphere and ocean. Last, but by no means least, the models will provide a tool for the interpretation of more complex GCM experiments. Specific mechanisms to be explored and hypotheses to be tested are described in the text of the proposal, with the primary goal of understanding the basic dynamics and predictability of these processes, and thereby the extent to which long-term variability can be produced by either atmosphere or ocean alone, or by coupled interactions. In spite of much study with coupled GCMs, the dynamics of coupled interactions leading to variability on long timescales are poorly understood, and the magnitude and thus importance of such variability is not known. Further, climate variability on the decadal to century time scale is perhaps less well studied and understood than the mechanisms of variability on either interannual or millennium timescales, in spite of its manifest importance.