Second Generation Integrated Climate-Change Modeling: The NEWDICE Model

第二代综合气候变化建模：NEWDICE 模型

• 批准号: 9711497
• 负责人: William Nordhaus
• 金额: $ 9万
• 依托单位: Yale University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-09-15 至 2000-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9711497&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Second; Generation; Integrated; Climate; Change

Developing numerical integrated-assessment models to understand and develop policies to reduce the impacts of global climate change is a major research priority for the social and natural sciences. This research will continue work by the principal investigator to improve integrated assessment models by developing a new version of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (the DICE model). The DICE model is a globally aggregated model integrating a general-equilibrium model of the global economy with a climate system including emissions, concentrations, climate change, impacts, and efficient policy. This research will focus on two specific areas. First, the research will update the underlying data and components to reflect developments in the natural and social sciences since the model was developed. Second, the new version of the DICE model (tentatively called the `NEWDICE` model) will incorporate three new methodological approaches: using a production function to represent the emissions-output tradeoff, incorporation of fossil fuel supplies to reflect the finite nature of the carbon base, and an attempt to incorporate an innovation possibility function to reflect the induced character of technological change.

发展数值综合评估模型以理解和制定减少全球气候变化影响的政策是社会科学和自然科学的主要研究重点。这项研究将继续由首席研究员通过开发新版本的气候与经济动态综合模型（DICE模型）来改进综合评估模型。DICE模型是一个全球汇总模型，将全球经济的一般均衡模型与包括排放、浓度、气候变化、影响和有效政策在内的气候系统相结合。这项研究将集中在两个具体领域。首先，研究将更新基础数据和组成部分，以反映自模型开发以来自然科学和社会科学的发展。其次，新版本的DICE模型（暂称“NEWDICE”模型）将纳入三种新的方法：使用生产函数来表示排放-产出权衡，纳入化石燃料供应以反映碳基的有限性，并尝试纳入创新可能性函数以反映技术变革的诱导特征。