Biodiversity Consequences of Global Climate Change in Mexico

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Peterson 97-11621 Studies of the Magnitude of climate changes expected resulting from buildup of atmospheric CO2 are predicted to affect many facets of the Earth's environments, although the magnitude of many of these effects is unknown. This study aims to integrate data bases regarding the biodiversity of Mexico, thematic geographic data, up-to-date information from satellite imagery, and simple models of global climate change into a series of predictions of the effects of these changes on species of birds, mammals, and butterflies in the region, a first assessment of the biodiversity consequences of global climate change. Multi-seasonal analysis of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer imagery will be used to produce a detailed region wide vegetation map, which will be combined with existing environmental maps and data bases to characterize habitat types. Simple models of the effects of elevated C02 and other agents of climate change will be used to mimic future shifts in distribution and extent of vegetation types and habitats. Geographic distributions of individual species will be predicted based on characteristics of sites of known occurrence; based on the future-shift models developed from climate change projections, species' future distributions will be modeled, and extinction's and colonization inferred. The overall result will be an assessment of the biodiversity consequences of anticipated climate change over the next several decades or centuries in Mexico, as well as the development of several methods and models that will be useful to other investigators interested in similar and related issues.