Biodiversity Consequences of Global Climate Change in Mexico

全球气候变化对墨西哥生物多样性的影响

• 批准号: 9711621
• 负责人: Townsend Peterson
• 金额: $ 36万
• 依托单位: University of Kansas Main Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-10-01 至 2003-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9711621&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Biodiversity; Consequences; Global; Climate; Change

Peterson 97-11621 Studies of the Magnitude of climate changes expected resulting from buildup of atmospheric CO2 are predicted to affect many facets of the Earth's environments, although the magnitude of many of these effects is unknown. This study aims to integrate data bases regarding the biodiversity of Mexico, thematic geographic data, up-to-date information from satellite imagery, and simple models of global climate change into a series of predictions of the effects of these changes on species of birds, mammals, and butterflies in the region, a first assessment of the biodiversity consequences of global climate change. Multi-seasonal analysis of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer imagery will be used to produce a detailed region wide vegetation map, which will be combined with existing environmental maps and data bases to characterize habitat types. Simple models of the effects of elevated C02 and other agents of climate change will be used to mimic future shifts in distribution and extent of vegetation types and habitats. Geographic distributions of individual species will be predicted based on characteristics of sites of known occurrence; based on the future-shift models developed from climate change projections, species' future distributions will be modeled, and extinction's and colonization inferred. The overall result will be an assessment of the biodiversity consequences of anticipated climate change over the next several decades or centuries in Mexico, as well as the development of several methods and models that will be useful to other investigators interested in similar and related issues.

彼得森97-11621关于大气二氧化碳积聚所导致的气候变化规模的研究预计将影响地球环境的许多方面，尽管其中许多影响的规模尚不清楚。这项研究旨在将关于墨西哥生物多样性的数据库、专题地理数据、来自卫星图像的最新信息和全球气候变化的简单模型整合到一系列预测中，预测这些变化对该地区鸟类、哺乳动物和蝴蝶物种的影响，首次评估全球气候变化对生物多样性的影响。将使用先进的甚高分辨率辐射计图像的多季节分析来制作一张详细的区域范围的植被图，该图将与现有的环境地图和数据库相结合，以确定生境类型。二氧化碳浓度升高和其他气候变化因素影响的简单模型将被用来模拟未来植被类型和栖息地的分布和范围的变化。将根据已知发生地点的特征预测单个物种的地理分布；根据气候变化预测开发的未来转移模型，将对物种的未来分布进行建模，并推断物种的灭绝和殖民。总的结果将是对墨西哥未来几十年或几个世纪预期的气候变化对生物多样性的影响进行评估，以及开发出几种方法和模型，这些方法和模型将对其他对类似和相关问题感兴趣的研究人员有用。