Regional Assessment of the Effects of ENSO-Related Climate Variability on the Agricultural Sector of Argentina and Uruguay Implications for Adoption of Climate Forecasts

摘要ATM- 9711629波德斯塔，吉列尔莫大学迈阿密 奥布莱恩，詹姆斯佛罗里达州立大学 James W. JONES 佛罗里达大学 标题：与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动有关的气候多变性对阿根廷和乌拉圭农业部门影响的区域评估-对采用气候预报的影响。 这是一个多学科的建议，将气候、作物和决策模型系统联系起来，以了解年际气候变化、作物生产力和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动相关气候预报对阿根廷和乌拉圭农业的价值之间的相互作用。 将利用蒙特卡罗模拟技术建立作物对气候变化反应的概率分布。 将使用调查方法来了解决策者的看法。 这项研究将试图回答一个重要的问题，即最近在气候预测技能方面的进展对农业学家有多大用处。 这笔赠款的结果将在评估气候预测改进的价值方面具有很大的实际效用。

ABSTRACT ATM- 9711629 Podesta, Guillermo University of Miami ATM-9726491 O'Brien, James Florida State University ATM-9726430 JONES, James W. University of Florida TITLE: Regional Assessment of the Effects of ENSO-Related Climate Variability on the Agricultural Sector of Argentina and Uruguay- Implications for Adoption of Climate Forecasts. This is a multidisciplinary proposal to link a system of climate, crop and decision models in order to understand the interactions of interannual climate variability, crop productivity and the value of ENSO-related climate forecasts to the agriculture of Argentina and Uruguay. Monte Carlo simulation techniques will be utilized to create probability distribution of crop response to climate variability. Survey methods will be used to understand the perceptions of the decision makers. This research will try to answer the important question of how useful the recent gains in climate prediction skills are and can be to the agriculturists. The results from this grant will be of great practical utility in assessing the value of improvements in climate prediction.