Regional Assessment of the Effects of ENSO-Related Climate Variability on the Agricultural Sector of Argentina and Uruguay Implications for Adoption of Climate Forecasts

摘要 ATM- 9711629 Podesta，吉列尔莫迈阿密大学 ATM-9726491 O'Brien，詹姆斯佛罗里达州立大学 ATM-9726430 JONES，詹姆斯 W. 佛罗里达大学 标题：ENSO 相关气候变化对阿根廷和乌拉圭农业部门影响的区域评估 - 对采用气候预测的影响。 这是一项多学科提案，旨在将气候、作物和决策模型系统联系起来，以了解年际气候变化、作物生产力以及 ENSO 相关气候预测对阿根廷和乌拉圭农业的价值之间的相互作用。 将利用蒙特卡罗模拟技术来创建作物对气候变化响应的概率分布。 将使用调查方法来了解决策者的看法。 这项研究将试图回答一个重要问题，即气候预测技能的最新进展对农学家来说有多大用处。 这笔赠款的结果对于评估气候预测改进的价值具有很大的实际用途。

ABSTRACT ATM- 9711629 Podesta, Guillermo University of Miami ATM-9726491 O'Brien, James Florida State University ATM-9726430 JONES, James W. University of Florida TITLE: Regional Assessment of the Effects of ENSO-Related Climate Variability on the Agricultural Sector of Argentina and Uruguay- Implications for Adoption of Climate Forecasts. This is a multidisciplinary proposal to link a system of climate, crop and decision models in order to understand the interactions of interannual climate variability, crop productivity and the value of ENSO-related climate forecasts to the agriculture of Argentina and Uruguay. Monte Carlo simulation techniques will be utilized to create probability distribution of crop response to climate variability. Survey methods will be used to understand the perceptions of the decision makers. This research will try to answer the important question of how useful the recent gains in climate prediction skills are and can be to the agriculturists. The results from this grant will be of great practical utility in assessing the value of improvements in climate prediction.