US GLOBEC: Real-Time Data Assimilation on Georges Bank

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9806390LynchThese investigators propose to develop, use, and evaluate a real-time nowcast /forecast system for the Georges Bank region. The scope of the system will include physical and biological variables relevant to the circulation and target species within the USGLOBEC Northwest Atlantic program. The intent is to provide networked capability for assimilating in-situ observations (from ship, moored and drifting instruments, as well as remotely sensed observations) into simulation models to provide the best estimate of the physical and ecological state of the ocean; to utilize networkavailable atmospheric forecasts to produce a circulation forecast; to examine the implications of the forecast on the ecology; and to guide the adjustment of the experimental protocol to maximize its relevance for cruise-specific goals. The system will be built from established and emerging GLOBEC tools for simulating and hindcasting Georges Bank. Our central hypothesis is that real-time forecasts are possible for detailed coupled physical/biological phenomena, with sufficient skill to allow adjustment of the observational protocol. This will be tested in an energetic and complex multi-frontal system, in the operational context of contemporary experiments about the coupled biophysical system itself.