US GLOBEC: Real-Time Data Assimilation on Georges Bank

9806390 lynch这些研究人员建议为乔治银行地区开发、使用和评估一个实时临近预报/预报系统。该系统的范围将包括USGLOBEC西北大西洋项目中与循环和目标物种相关的物理和生物变量。其目的是提供联网能力，以便将现场观测（来自船舶、系泊和漂流仪器以及遥感观测）纳入模拟模型，以提供对海洋物理和生态状况的最佳估计；利用网络提供的大气预报进行环流预报；研究预测对生态的影响；并指导实验方案的调整，以最大限度地提高其与巡航特定目标的相关性。该系统将利用现有的和新兴的GLOBEC工具来模拟和预测Georges Bank。我们的中心假设是，对详细的耦合物理/生物现象进行实时预测是可能的，并且有足够的技巧来调整观测方案。这将在一个充满活力和复杂的多额系统中进行测试，在关于耦合生物物理系统本身的当代实验的操作背景下进行测试。

9806390LynchThese investigators propose to develop, use, and evaluate a real-time nowcast /forecast system for the Georges Bank region. The scope of the system will include physical and biological variables relevant to the circulation and target species within the USGLOBEC Northwest Atlantic program. The intent is to provide networked capability for assimilating in-situ observations (from ship, moored and drifting instruments, as well as remotely sensed observations) into simulation models to provide the best estimate of the physical and ecological state of the ocean; to utilize networkavailable atmospheric forecasts to produce a circulation forecast; to examine the implications of the forecast on the ecology; and to guide the adjustment of the experimental protocol to maximize its relevance for cruise-specific goals. The system will be built from established and emerging GLOBEC tools for simulating and hindcasting Georges Bank. Our central hypothesis is that real-time forecasts are possible for detailed coupled physical/biological phenomena, with sufficient skill to allow adjustment of the observational protocol. This will be tested in an energetic and complex multi-frontal system, in the operational context of contemporary experiments about the coupled biophysical system itself.