Quantification of Seasonal and Solar Cycle Variations of the Ionospheric Electron Density

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The primary objective of this study is to improve the capability of predicting ionospheric weather by improving the basic understanding of the climatology (long-term variations) of the F-region ionosphere. This objective will be accomplished through a detailed analysis of the seasonal and solar cycle variations of the ionospheric peak electron density (NmF2). Quantification of the reasons for the long term variations is a necessary prelude to solving the problem of predicting the day-to-day variability (weather). Of primary concern will be the determination of the dependence of observed NmF2 on both the daily and long-term solar activity indices (F10.7, F10.7A). Currently, this very basic relationship is not well known. The causes of the observed density variations will be explored with the aid of the theoretical ionosphere model, known as the FLIP model, which is capable of utilizing key ionospheric measurements as constraints. With the aid of a newly developed algorithm to adjust the model neutral densities, comparison of the observed and modeled electron density variations will enable the determination of the changes in the neutral densities or photoionization rates that may be required to reproduce the observations. This study will lead to improved forecasting of ionospheric behavior by determining the underlying physical causes of the main variations in ionospheric electron density.