Experimental Studies of Desirability Bias in Predictive Judgment
预测判断中意愿偏差的实验研究
基本信息
- 批准号:9876585
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 12.05万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Continuing Grant
- 财政年份:1999
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:1999-03-15 至 2003-03-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Most important decisions involve making predictions about the future. The decision whether or not to buy a particular house, for example, might involve predicting changes in the size of one's family, the composition of the prospective neighborhood, and one's future employment and income. The same is true of most other important personal decisions and also professional decisions in fields like medicine, law, business, and public policy. The question addressed by this research is whether these kinds of predictions are influenced by "wishful thinking." Are people's predictions about what will happen in the future influenced by what they want to happen? For example, does the fact that a couple wants a particular house--and therefore wants to be able to make the payments--cause them to make overly optimistic predictions about their future employment and income? This is clearly an important question because this kind of wishful thinking could lead to poor decisions. For example, it could cause the aforementioned couple to fail to anticipate a job layoff that results in foreclosure on their mortgage. The results of past research on wishful thinking are inconsistent,with some researchers finding strong effects of people's desires on theirpredictions and others finding weak or null effects. The goal of thepresent research is test a newly developed framework for integrating theseinconsistent results. This framework specifies six conditions under whichwishful thinking is especially likely to occur. A review of theliterature suggests that these conditions were largely met in previousstudies that demonstrated wishful thinking, but not in research thatfailed to demonstrate it. The six conditions are 1) the desire that theevent occur is strong, 2) whether or not the event is going to occur ishighly uncertain, 3) there is no strong incentive for the prediction to beaccurate, 4) the prediction task is complex, requiring the search for andintegration of many pieces of information, 5) the event is perceived asbeing at least partly under the control of the person making theprediction, and 6) the prediction takes a deterministic "yes-no" formrather than a probabilistic form. The research will consist of several experiments in which collegestudents and others make predictions about a broad range of future eventsincluding sporting contests, political elections, and games of chance likeroulette. By manipulating both the desirability of the alternativeoutcomes of these events and whether or not each of the six conditions ofthe framework are met, it will be determined whether wishful thinking isin fact more likely when those conditions are satisfied. As a result of this research, scientific understanding of wishfulthinking, its causes, and the conditions under which it is most likely tooccur will be greatly expanded. This will allow researchers to developmethods for avoiding wishful thinking to help people make betterdecisions.
大多数重要的决策都涉及对未来的预测。 例如,决定是否购买一所特定的房子,可能涉及预测一个人家庭规模的变化,未来社区的组成,以及一个人未来的就业和收入。 这同样适用于大多数其他重要的个人决策,以及医学、法律、商业和公共政策等领域的专业决策。 这项研究所要解决的问题是,这些预测是否受到“一厢情愿”的影响。“人们对未来会发生什么的预测是否受到他们想要发生的事情的影响? 例如,一对夫妇想要一套特定的房子,因此希望能够支付贷款,这是否会导致他们对未来的就业和收入做出过于乐观的预测? 这显然是一个重要的问题,因为这种一厢情愿的想法可能会导致糟糕的决定。 例如,它可能会导致上述夫妇未能预料到裁员,导致丧失抵押品赎回权。 过去关于一厢情愿的研究结果并不一致,一些研究人员发现人们的愿望对他们的预测有很强的影响,而另一些研究人员发现这种影响很弱或无效。 本研究的目标是测试一个新开发的框架,整合这些不一致的结果。 这个框架规定了六个条件,在这些条件下,一厢情愿的想法特别可能发生。 对文献的回顾表明,这些条件在以前证明一厢情愿的研究中基本上得到了满足,但在未能证明这一点的研究中却没有。这六个条件是:1)事件发生的愿望很强烈,2)事件是否会发生很不确定,3)没有强烈的动机让预测准确,4)预测任务很复杂,需要搜索和整合多条信息,5)事件被认为至少部分地在做出预测的人的控制下,以及6)预测采取确定性的“是-否”形式而不是概率形式。 这项研究将包括几个实验,在这些实验中,大学生和其他人对未来的广泛事件进行预测,包括体育比赛,政治选举和像轮盘赌这样的机会游戏。 通过操纵这些事件的替代结果的可取性以及是否满足框架的六个条件中的每一个,将确定当这些条件满足时,是否一厢情愿的想法实际上更有可能。 作为这项研究的结果,对一厢情愿的科学理解,它的原因,以及它最有可能发生的条件将大大扩展。 这将使研究人员能够开发出避免一厢情愿的方法,以帮助人们做出更好的决定。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Paul Price其他文献
Hyper Suprime-Camにおける銀河形状測定の系統誤差の評価
使用 Hyper Suprime-Cam 评估星系形状测量的系统误差
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2015 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
宮武広直;Steve Bickerton;Alexie Leauthaud;Surhud More;岡部信広;高田昌広;大栗真宗;浜名崇;宮崎聡;Bob Armstrong;Jim Bosch;Robert Lupton;Paul Price;梅津敬一;Rachel Mandelbaum;Melanie Simet;内海洋輔;西澤淳;大倉悠貴;他 HSC weak lensing analysis team - 通讯作者:
他 HSC weak lensing analysis team
Poly(malic acid) copolymers as degradable rheology modifiers in aqueous formulations
聚苹果酸共聚物作为可降解的水基配方中的流变改性剂
- DOI:
10.1039/d4py01382d - 发表时间:
2025-02-05 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.900
- 作者:
Christina A. R. Picken;Orla Buensoz;Christopher Fidge;Paul Price;Michael P. Shaver - 通讯作者:
Michael P. Shaver
Degradable branched and cross-linked polyesters from a bis(1,3-dioxolan-4-one) core
来自双(1,3-二氧戊环-4-酮)核心的可降解支化和交联聚酯
- DOI:
10.1039/d4py00551a - 发表时间:
2024-09-18 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.900
- 作者:
Orla Buensoz;Christina A. R. Picken;Paul Price;Christopher Fidge;Michael P. Shaver - 通讯作者:
Michael P. Shaver
Assessing the impact of different assumptions on the size of a Mixture Assessment Factor (MAF) for chemical mixtures in surface waters using data from three recent monitoring studies
使用来自三项最近的监测研究的数据,评估不同假设对地表水中化学混合物的混合物评估因子(MAF)大小的影响
- DOI:
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176703 - 发表时间:
2024-12-15 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:8.000
- 作者:
Paul Price;Ismael Rodea-Palomares;Arnd Weyers - 通讯作者:
Arnd Weyers
Report of the ad Hoc committee on nomenclature and standards for bone proteins and growth factors
骨蛋白和生长因子命名和标准特设委员会的报告
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
1986 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:6.2
- 作者:
P. Hauschka;K. Mann;Paul Price;J. Termine - 通讯作者:
J. Termine
Paul Price的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Paul Price', 18)}}的其他基金
RUI: Collaborative Research: Sample Size Bias in Judgments of Averages
RUI:协作研究:平均值判断中的样本量偏差
- 批准号:
1260642 - 财政年份:2013
- 资助金额:
$ 12.05万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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