Collaborative Research: Retirement Decisions After Job Loss

合作研究：失业后的退休决定

• 批准号: 9905275
• 负责人: Ann Stevens
• 金额: $ 9.69万
• 依托单位: Yale University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-07-15 至 2002-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9905275&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Retirement; Decisions; After

AbstractSBR-9905275This project investigates the effects of late career job loss on earnings, wealth and employment, then uses these displacement-induced changes in the relative returns to work and retirement to cast new light on the nature of the retirement decision. While previous work on job loss outcomes has often ignored older workers and the burgeoning literature on retirement has similarly ignored involuntary job separations, this project will confront a number of important yet unanswered questions in both the literatures on displaced workers and on retirement decision-making. Proceeding in two stages, the first stage ofthe project involves reduced-form investigations ofthe effects of job loss on older workers' earnings, employment, and wealth, including pension wealth. In the second stage, the estimated effects of job loss are incorporated into a structural model of the retirement decision.In the first stage, data from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) are used to estimate the effects of job loss on earnings, financial wealth, pensions, employment and retirement expectations of workers aged 50 and over. While there is a large literature on the effects of displacement, much of the recent research has focused solely on "prime-age" workers. In addition, virtually no research exists on the effects of displacement on wealth, including pension wealth, or on workers' expectations regarding future employment and retirement. These omissions are particularly troubling given the dramatic increase in the incidence of job loss among older workers in recent years. Preliminary results show substantial damage to wages, financial assets, and future employment as a result of late career job loss.The second stage of the project builds on these reduced-form studies, and examines the effects of displacement-induced changes in earnings and wealth on actual and expected retirement, using the framework of a dynamic retirement model. Most empirical implementations of retirement models do not allow an explicit role for assets or saving in the retirement decision, nor for liquidity constraints, features that are particularly important for job-losers given preliminary findings that wealth is significantly damaged by job loss and that this substantially affects subsequent transitions into and out of employment. In this project, the well-known "option value" retirement model is modified to allow for saving, assets and liquidity constraints, and the model is estimated using HRS data on actual and expected employment.Beyond the fundamental interest in job loss itself, the substantial within-person variation in the future returns to work and retirement generated by the job loss provides a unique opportunity to examine more general issues of retirement. In addition to the usual cross-sectional data on observed retirement, the longitudinal data on retirement expectations allows for the estimation of fixed-effects versions of the option value model. Because previous applications of these models have implicitly used differences across individuals in future returns to work and retirement, this project, in identifying this within-person source of variation, offers an important contribution to the empirical literature on retirement decisions.

这个项目调查了职业生涯后期失业对收入、财富和就业的影响，然后利用这些置换引起的相对工作回报和退休回报的变化来揭示退休决策的性质。虽然以前关于失业后果的研究往往忽略了年长的工人，新兴的关于退休的文献也同样忽视了非自愿的工作离职，但这个项目将在关于失业工人的文献和关于退休决策的文献中面临一些重要但尚未回答的问题。该项目分两个阶段进行，第一阶段包括对失业对老年工人的收入、就业和财富(包括养老金财富)的影响进行简化调查。在第二阶段，失业的估计影响被纳入退休决策的结构模型。在第一阶段，来自健康和退休调查(HRS)的数据被用来估计失业对50岁及以上工人的收入、财务财富、养老金、就业和退休预期的影响。虽然有大量关于流离失所的影响的文献，但最近的大部分研究都只集中在“黄金年龄”员工身上。此外，几乎没有关于流离失所对财富的影响的研究，包括对养老金财富的影响，或者对工人对未来就业和退休的预期的研究。鉴于近年来老年工人失业的发生率急剧上升，这些遗漏尤其令人不安。初步结果显示，职业生涯后期失业对工资、金融资产和未来就业造成了重大损害。该项目的第二阶段建立在这些简化形式的研究基础上，并使用动态退休模型的框架，检查因流离失所导致的收入和财富变化对实际和预期退休的影响。大多数退休模型的经验实现都不允许资产或储蓄在退休决策中扮演明确的角色，也不允许流动性约束，这两个特征对失业者来说尤其重要，因为初步发现，财富因失业而严重受损，这对随后进入和退出就业的过渡有很大影响。在这个项目中，著名的“期权价值”退休模型被修改，以考虑储蓄、资产和流动性限制，该模型使用实际和预期就业的HRS数据进行估计。除了对失业本身的基本利益之外，由于失业导致的未来工作回报和退休的巨大个人内部差异，为研究更一般的退休问题提供了一个独特的机会。除了通常关于观察到的退休的横截面数据外，关于退休预期的纵向数据还允许估计期权价值模型的固定效果版本。由于这些模型以前的应用隐含地使用了未来工作回报和退休回报中的个人差异，因此该项目在确定这种人内差异来源方面为退休决策的实证文献做出了重要贡献。