Collaborative Research: Testing Earth System Models with Paleoenvironmental Observations (TEMPO)

该奖项为完全互动的地球系统模型的开发和测试提供支持，该模型允许大气、水圈和生物圈之间的反馈。古气候研究表明，地球系统各组成部分之间的反馈如何在自21,000年前最后一次冰川盛期(21 Ka)以来的大规模气候变化中发挥关键作用。新建立的全球古气候数据集和改进的地球系统模型将使TEMPO研究人员能够探索这些反馈对21和6ka气候模拟的影响，以及对导致冰后期和全新世气候突变的影响。支持者计划使用一个快速同步耦合的大气-海洋模式，包括有和没有IBIS的生物圈模式，同步耦合到它，并进行长(500-1000年)和短(50年-00年)积分，以测试海洋、生物圈和水文反馈对气候模拟的影响。这项研究将集中在：1)用全球资料/模式比较、模式/模式比较和估计这些日期的十到世纪尺度的变化来模拟21和6 ka的平均气候；2)探索性地模拟21 ka以来一些可能的突变原因，并与植被和水文数据的时间序列进行比较；3)2倍或3倍二氧化碳的平均和瞬变模拟，并与过去21 ka期间平均状态、变化和突变的机制进行比较。后一项研究将把我们对过去气候的研究与对未来可能气候的研究直接联系起来。

This award provides support for the development and testing of fully interactive earth-system models that allow for feedbacks among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere. Paleoclimate studies have shown how feedbacks among earth system components play a key role in the large climate changes since the last glacial maximum (LGM) 21,000 years ago (21 ka). Newly established global paleoclimatic data sets and improved earth system models will allow TEMPO investigators to explore the impact of these feedbacks on the simulation of 21 and 6 ka climates and also on inducing abrupt changes in late-glacial and Holocene climates. The proponents plan to use a fast synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean model with and without IBIS, a biosphere model, synchronously coupled to it and make both long (500-1000 yr) and short (50-~00 yr) integrations to test the impacts of ocean, biospheric, and hydrological feedbacks on the climate simulations. The research will focus on 1) simulations of the mean climates for 21 and 6 ka with global data/model comparisons, model/model comparisons, and estimation of the decade-to-century-scale variability at these dates; 2) exploratory simulations of some possible causes of abrupt changes since 21 ka with thorough analysis and comparison with temporal sequences of vegetational and hydrological data; and 3) mean and transient simulations for 2x or 3xCO2 and comparisons with the mechanisms that produced the mean state, variability and abrupt changes during the last 21 ka. This latter research will link our studies of past climates directly to the study of possible future climates.