Collaborative Research: Stochastic Variability of Seasonal Freeze-Thaw at Local, Regional and Hemispheric Scales under Modern and Predicted Climate

气候变暖可能对冻土和土壤活动层产生严重影响。 这项为期三年的研究将调查影响平均永久冻土条件及其空间变异性的因素。 将开发用于分离活性层厚度的空间变异性的确定性和随机性分量的理论程序。这些模型将与全球气候模型产生的气候预测相联系，以便预测土壤和永久冻土的区域条件。 然后，将利用在环极活动层监测网络所包括的69个站点和120个俄罗斯站点收集的数据以及从10个选定的俄罗斯站点收集的新数据来验证这些模型结果。 因此，将绘制地图，给出描述活动层厚度的平均参数及其在局部到区域尺度上的变化。

Climate warming may have serious impacts on permafrost and the soil active layer. This three-year study will investigate factors affecting the average permafrost conditions as well as its spatial variability. Theoretical procedures for separating deterministic and stochastic components of the spatial variability of active layer thickness will be developed. These models will be linked to climate predictions produced from global climate models in order to predict the regional conditions of the soil and permafrost. These model results will then be validated using data collected at 69 sites included in the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) network and at 120 Russian stations, as well as new data from 10 selected Russian sites. Thus, maps will be developed which give the mean parameters describing the active layer thickness and also its variability on local to regional scales.