Collaborative Research: Testing Earth System Models with Paleoenivironmental Observations (TEMPO)

该奖项为开发和测试完全互动的地球系统模型提供支持，该模型允许在大气、水圈和生物圈之间进行反馈。古气候研究表明，自21000年前（21ka）末次盛冰期（LGM）以来，地球系统各组分之间的反馈在大规模气候变化中发挥了关键作用。新建立的全球古气候数据集和改进的地球系统模型将使TEMPO研究人员能够探索这些反馈对21和6 ka气候模拟的影响，以及对诱导晚冰期和全新世气候突变的影响。支持者计划使用一个快速同步耦合的大气-海洋模型，有或没有IBIS，一个生物圈模型，与IBIS同步耦合，并进行长期（500-1000年）和短期（50-~00年）的整合，以测试海洋、生物圈和水文反馈对气候模拟的影响。研究将集中于：1)利用全球数据/模式比较、模式/模式比较，模拟21和6 ka的平均气候，并估计这些日期的十年-世纪尺度变率；2)通过对植被和水文资料时间序列的深入分析和比较，探索性模拟了21 ka以来一些可能的突变原因；3) 2倍或3倍co2的平均和瞬态模拟，并与过去21 ka期间产生平均状态、变率和突变的机制进行比较。后一项研究将把我们对过去气候的研究与对未来可能气候的研究直接联系起来。

This award provides support for the development and testing of fully interactive earth-system models that allow for feedbacks among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere. Paleoclimate studies have shown how feedbacks among earth system components play a key role in the large climate changes since the last glacial maximum (LGM) 21,000 years ago (21 ka). Newly established global paleoclimatic data sets and improved earth system models will allow TEMPO investigators to explore the impact of these feedbacks on the simulation of 21 and 6 ka climates and also on inducing abrupt changes in late-glacial and Holocene climates. The proponents plan to use a fast synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean model with and without IBIS, a biosphere model, synchronously coupled to it and make both long (500-1000 yr) and short (50-~00 yr) integrations to test the impacts of ocean, biospheric, and hydrological feedbacks on the climate simulations. The research will focus on 1) simulations of the mean climates for 21 and 6 ka with global data/model comparisons, model/model comparisons, and estimation of the decade-to-century-scale variability at these dates; 2) exploratory simulations of some possible causes of abrupt changes since 21 ka with thorough analysis and comparison with temporal sequences of vegetational and hydrological data; and 3) mean and transient simulations for 2x or 3xCO2 and comparisons with the mechanisms that produced the mean state, variability and abrupt changes during the last 21 ka. This latter research will link our studies of past climates directly to the study of possible future climates.