Doctoral Dissertation Research: Visualizing Mechanistic Controls of North American Climate Variability Through Cartographic Animation

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Extreme climate variations, such as droughts and floods, have broad social and economic consequences for agriculture and water resources. A major challenge to climate researchers, however, are to effectively formulate and present depictions of climate change. The objectives of this doctoral dissertation research project are to develop a conceptual model of the controls of North American climate on multiple spatial and temporal scales and to illustrate this model using animated cartographic methods. Specifically, this project is designed to provide a general process-based description of daily and month-to-month variations of atmospheric circulation that contribute to surface climate anomalies such as drought. This study will also describe the influence that such phenomena like El Nino have on year-to-year variations of North American climate. Data for this project are provided through the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) 50-year Reanalysis Project. These data sources, which contain meteorological fields, many not directly observable, can be used for analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of the climate system. The long-term averages of each variable provide information about the broad-scale climate variations through the seasonal cycle. Composite-anomaly patterns show relationships between large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and surface climate responses. Cartographic animations using these data incorporate time progression into analyses of climate variability, thus providing an opportunity to visualize the build-up and demise of anomalous events such as droughts and floods.Results from this project will provide a greater understanding of the processes involved in climate variability in North America and how those processes vary through time and space. This research will show the surface and atmospheric climate processes that control extreme events like drought in the modern climate record in order to help understand what has driven past climate change. The project also will provide tools for predicting the impact of drought in future climates. The process-based approach taken in this project will contribute to understanding of the mechanisms and feedbacks that cause climate variability on multiple spatial scales (e.g., regional to continental) and temporal scales (e.g., daily to yearly). In addition, this research will enhance the field of cartography through the application of animations for both data exploration and communication of results. Animations created from this research will be made available via the internet to researchers, educators and the general public for use as teaching and resource tools. Such products provide a link between research in the lab and learning in the classroom. In K-12 education, for example, teachers will be able to use the web-based materials created for this project to help develop their own student-centered learning activities. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.