Space Weather: Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejection from Vector Magnetograms

文章摘要：ATM00-01266建议标题：从矢量磁图预测日冕物质抛射主要研究人员：位于亨茨维尔的阿拉巴马大学的大卫·法尔科纳该研究人员将开发太阳活动区全球无势的定量测量方法，以预测这些活动区产生耀斑相关的日冕物质抛射(CMS)。主要努力是将对四个活跃区域进行的有前景的试点研究的结果扩大到具有统计意义的30-40个活跃区域的样本。在试点研究中，开发了两个新的非潜力指标(全球净电流流量和主要中性线的长度)，发现它们彼此相关，并与活动区的总体非潜力相关。此外，这些参数异常大的两个案例产生了CME。扩展研究将：(1)检验先导研究的初步结论。(2)寻找其他相关性。(3)研究新措施与以前观察到的乙状结肠结构之间的关系。(4)开发将新措施应用于业务预测的技术。

Abstract: ATM 00-01266Proposal Title: Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector MagnetogramsPrincipal Investigator: David Falconer, University of Alabama in Huntsville The investigator will develop quantitative measures of the global non-potentiality of solar active regions in order to predict generation of flare-associated coronal mass ejections (CMS) by these active regions. The main effort is to expand the results of a promising pilot study of four active regions to a statistical meaningful sample of 30-40 active regions. In the pilot study, two new measures of non-potentiality were developed (global net current flow and length of the main neutral line) and found to be correlated with each other and with the overall non-potentiality of the active regions. In addition, two cases in which these parameters were unusually large produced CME. The expanded study will: (1) Test the tentative conclusions of the pilot study. (2) Search for other correlations. (3) Investigate the relationship of the new measures to the previously observed sigmoidal structures. (4) Develop techniques to apply the new measures to operational forecasting.