SHINE: Understanding the Magnetic Origins of Coronal Mass Ejections and Forecasting Their Occurrence from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms

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The proposer plans to investigate the magnetic origins of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) by comparing active-region CME productivity with quantitative measures of active-region magnetic conditions. He expects to establish, as a by-product, a basis for forecasting Earthward-directed CMEs. The Principal Investigator (PI) intends to analyze Solar and Heliospheric Observatory-Michelson Doppler Imager (SOHO/MDI) line-of-sight magnetograms to obtain whole-active-region measures of the nonpotentiality of the solar magnetic field and the magnetic flux, as well as the rates of change of these quantities. He will then assess the relative importance of these parameters in causing CME eruptions by performing a statistical evaluation of the correlation of these parameters with the CME productivity of active regions. The proposed project builds on recent results from previous NSF awards and from the PI's ongoing analysis of solar vector magnetograms. The PI has obtained reliable measures of active-region nonpotentiality from line-of-sight magnetograms, without using vector magnetograms. This encouraged the PI to use the superior continuity, cadence, and uniformity of space-based MDI line-of-sight magnetograms to track the evolution of solar active-region nonpotentiality and magnetic flux content, and to examine the importance of the evolution of these quantities in the origin of CMEs. This effort also includes the training of graduate student research assistants in solar physics. The PI expects this project to lead to better operational forecasting of Earthward CMEs and of potentially adverse space weather events.