Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Measures of Active-Region Nonpotentiality

根据活动区非势能测量预测日冕物质抛射

• 批准号: 0352834
• 负责人: David Falconer
• 金额: $ 11.48万
• 依托单位: University of Alabama in Huntsville
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-05-01 至 2008-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0352834&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Prediction; Coronal; Mass; Ejections; Measures

The overall objective of this proposal is to continue the development of quantitative measures of the Sun's active-region nonpotentiality from solar magnetograms, and to further evaluate these measures as predictors of active-region coronal mass ejections (CMEs). During the proposed three years' investigation, the PI would carry out three related projects to (1) refine the ranking of the PI's active-region nonpotentiality measures as CME predictors, (2) investigate the dependence of CME production on the evolution of active-region nonpotentiality, and (3) extend the PI's analysis procedure to vector magnetograms from SOLIS, as well as investigate active regions without sunspots. Through clarification of the conditions that produce CMEs, this effort would contribute to better physical understanding of CMEs themselves, which in turn would contribute to understanding many other magnetically explosive astrophysical events, on other stars and in galaxies throughout the universe. This effort would provide broad benefits to society by leading to improved forecasting of Earthward CMEs, which will better allow defensive measures to be taken against the destructive space weather wrought by geoeffective CMEs.

这项建议的总体目标是继续从太阳磁图中发展太阳活动区非势能的定量测量，并进一步评价这些测量作为活动区日冕物质抛射（CME）的预测因子。在拟议的三年调查期间，PI将开展三个相关项目，以（1）改进PI的活动区非潜力措施作为CME预测因子的排名，（2）调查CME生产对活动区非潜力演变的依赖性，（3）将PI的分析程序扩展到SOLIS的矢量磁图，以及调查没有太阳黑子的活动区。 通过澄清产生日冕物质抛射的条件，这一努力将有助于更好地从物理上了解日冕物质抛射本身，而这反过来又将有助于了解宇宙中其他恒星和星系上的许多其他磁爆炸天体物理事件。 这一努力将为社会带来广泛的利益，因为它将改善对向地球的日冕物质抛射的预报，从而更好地采取防御措施，防止地球效应日冕物质抛射造成的破坏性空间天气。