Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Measures of Active-Region Nonpotentiality

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The overall objective of this proposal is to continue the development of quantitative measures of the Sun's active-region nonpotentiality from solar magnetograms, and to further evaluate these measures as predictors of active-region coronal mass ejections (CMEs). During the proposed three years' investigation, the PI would carry out three related projects to (1) refine the ranking of the PI's active-region nonpotentiality measures as CME predictors, (2) investigate the dependence of CME production on the evolution of active-region nonpotentiality, and (3) extend the PI's analysis procedure to vector magnetograms from SOLIS, as well as investigate active regions without sunspots. Through clarification of the conditions that produce CMEs, this effort would contribute to better physical understanding of CMEs themselves, which in turn would contribute to understanding many other magnetically explosive astrophysical events, on other stars and in galaxies throughout the universe. This effort would provide broad benefits to society by leading to improved forecasting of Earthward CMEs, which will better allow defensive measures to be taken against the destructive space weather wrought by geoeffective CMEs.