Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Persistence of Presidential Campaigns in the Public Agenda

政治学博士论文研究：总统竞选在公共议程中的持续存在

• 批准号: 0001728
• 负责人: Charles Franklin
• 金额: $ 0.79万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-08-15 至 2001-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0001728&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

Scholars of American politics continue to debate whether campaigns and elections really matter. After all, the outcomes of campaigns can be predicted by presidential approval and economic factors a year before the election (Gelman and King, 1993; Lewis-Beck and Rice, 1992). Accordingly, it is argued that the influence of campaigns on the polity must be minimal. This doctoral dissertation research project argues that presidential campaigns do matter. They matter not just for the election outcomes, but also for public policy by influencing the public agenda after the election and by establishing the criteria by which presidents are evaluated subsequently. Campaigns influence governing largely through the persistence of campaign messages in the public consciousness. The researcher draws on the literatures on campaign effects, public opinion formation, agenda setting, and presidential evaluation to address the link between democratic elections and public policy. Using newly collected rolling-cross section survey data collected during the 2000 presidential campaign and after, the investigator tests three basic hypotheses while allowing for individual variation. The first is the themes emphasized by presidential candidates become increasing important to the public. The second is the winner's themes persist in the public agenda and into his administration. The third is that the campaign themes establish the bases for presidential evaluations. In sum, presidential campaigns do not simply respond to the public agenda; they play an important role in setting it. The public does not merely attend to the campaign agenda; it holds the president accountable after the election.

研究美国政治的学者们继续争论竞选和选举是否真的重要。 毕竟，竞选的结果可以通过总统的批准和选举前一年的经济因素来预测（Gelman和King，1993; Lewis-Beck和Rice，1992）。 因此，有人认为，运动对政体的影响必须是最小的。这篇博士论文的研究项目认为，总统竞选确实很重要。 它们不仅关系到选举结果，而且通过影响选举后的公共议程和建立随后评估总统的标准，关系到公共政策。 竞选活动主要通过使竞选信息在公众意识中持续存在来影响治理。 本研究主要从竞选效果、民意形成、议题设定、总统评鉴等方面，探讨民主选举与公共政策之间的关联。 使用新收集的滚动横截面调查数据收集在2000年总统竞选和之后，调查人员测试三个基本假设，同时允许个体差异。 首先，总统候选人强调的主题对公众越来越重要。 第二，赢家的主题在公共议程和他的政府中持续存在。 第三，竞选主题为总统评估奠定了基础。 总而言之，总统竞选活动不仅仅是对公共议程的回应，而且在制定公共议程方面发挥着重要作用;公众不仅关注竞选议程，而且在选举后追究总统的责任。