Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Persistence of Presidential Campaigns in the Public Agenda

研究美国政治的学者们继续争论竞选和选举是否真的重要。毕竟，竞选的结果可以通过总统支持率和选举前一年的经济因素来预测（Gelman and King, 1993; Lewis-Beck and Rice, 1992）。因此，有人认为运动对政体的影响必须是最小的。这个博士论文研究项目认为，总统竞选确实很重要。他们不仅对选举结果很重要，而且对公共政策也很重要，因为他们会影响选举后的公共议程，并建立随后评估总统的标准。竞选活动对治理的影响主要是通过竞选信息在公众意识中的持续存在来实现的。研究人员借鉴了有关竞选效果、民意形成、议程设置和总统评价的文献，以解决民主选举与公共政策之间的联系。利用2000年总统竞选期间及之后新收集的滚动横截面调查数据，研究者在允许个体差异的情况下测试了三个基本假设。首先，总统候选人所强调的主题对公众越来越重要。二是获奖者的主题持续出现在公众议程中，并进入b他的政府。第三，竞选主题是评价总统的基础。总而言之，总统竞选不仅仅是对公共议程做出回应；他们在设定过程中发挥了重要作用。公众不仅关注竞选议程；它要求总统在选举后承担责任。

Scholars of American politics continue to debate whether campaigns and elections really matter. After all, the outcomes of campaigns can be predicted by presidential approval and economic factors a year before the election (Gelman and King, 1993; Lewis-Beck and Rice, 1992). Accordingly, it is argued that the influence of campaigns on the polity must be minimal. This doctoral dissertation research project argues that presidential campaigns do matter. They matter not just for the election outcomes, but also for public policy by influencing the public agenda after the election and by establishing the criteria by which presidents are evaluated subsequently. Campaigns influence governing largely through the persistence of campaign messages in the public consciousness. The researcher draws on the literatures on campaign effects, public opinion formation, agenda setting, and presidential evaluation to address the link between democratic elections and public policy. Using newly collected rolling-cross section survey data collected during the 2000 presidential campaign and after, the investigator tests three basic hypotheses while allowing for individual variation. The first is the themes emphasized by presidential candidates become increasing important to the public. The second is the winner's themes persist in the public agenda and into his administration. The third is that the campaign themes establish the bases for presidential evaluations. In sum, presidential campaigns do not simply respond to the public agenda; they play an important role in setting it. The public does not merely attend to the campaign agenda; it holds the president accountable after the election.