Stratospheric and Oceanic Contribution to Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

该项目旨在确定地球表面平流层变化的影响如何受到模式分辨率、模式物理改进和所使用的海洋模式性质（动态与混合层海洋）的影响。pi将研究北大西洋的任何变冷在多大程度上是自然变率或强迫的特征（包括海洋热输送变化、大气环流变化、温室气体和/或气溶胶负荷增加）。pi将(i)量化在气候变化实验中纳入平流层动力学的重要性以及重要的对流层和海洋反馈的潜力；（ii）预估（基于给定情景）北大西洋地表气温的未来趋势，并研究其对包括平流层和海洋分量的依赖；（iii）检验人为气候变化的指纹在研究中使用的所有模式配置中具有多大程度的鲁棒性。将使用具有更精细的垂直和水平分辨率的NASA GISS模型。该模型还将包括在线臭氧化学和传输。这将改善太阳周期对平流层的加热效应。将使用年际变化的海温，这可能有助于产生比低分辨率更真实的夏季结果。这项工作很重要，因为它将增加对平流层在气候中的作用的理解。

This project seeks to determine how the impact of stratospheric changes at the earth's surface is affected by model resolution, improvements in model physics and the nature of the ocean model used (dynamical versus mixed layer ocean). The PIs will examine to what extent any cooling in the North Atlantic is a feature of natural variability or forced (including ocean heat transport changes, changes in atmospheric circulation, increasing greenhouse gases and/or aerosol loadings). The PIs will (i) to quantify the importance of including stratospheric dynamics in climate change experiments and the potential for important tropospheric and oceanic feedbacks; (ii) to project (based on given scenarios) future trends in the North Atlantic surface air temperature and examine their dependence on the inclusion of the stratospheric and oceanic components; and (iii) to examine to what extent fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change are robust over all the model configurations used in the study. The NASA GISS model with finer vertical and horizontal resolution will be used. The model will also include on-line ozone chemistry and transport. This will improve the solar cycle heating effects in the stratosphere. Interannual varying SST will be used, this may help generate more realistic summer results than with the low resolution. The work is important because it will increase understanding of the role of the stratosphere in climate.