Predictability of ENSO

拟议工作的目标是：(1)证明确定和理解ENSO动力预报可靠性的技术在当前最先进的海洋-大气模式预报系统的代表性横截面上工作；(2)确定预报技能不同的物理基础；(3)调查不同模式的预报集合在产生更好的预报和预报稳健性方面的有用性；(4)发展线性预报的一般理论，以便扩展和完善迄今发展的方法。PI建议在一系列数值模式中研究ENSO的可预测性。这项工作很重要，因为它将有助于更好地了解ENSO的可预测性和热带太平洋变率所涉及的物理过程。对ENSO认识的改进可能会带来更准确的ENSO预测。

The objectives of the proposed work are to (i) demonstrate that the techniques to determine and to understand the relaibility of dynamical predictions of ENSO, work in a representative cross section of current state of the art coupled ocean-atmosphere model forecast system; (ii) determine the physical basis for the variation in the skill amongst forecasts; (iii) investigate the usefulness of a collection of forecasts from different models in producing both a better forecast and an indication of forecast robustness; and (iv) develop a general theory of linear prediction in order to extend and refine the methodology developed to date. The PI proposes an investigation of the predictability of ENSO in a range of numerical models. The work is important because it will lead to better understanding of ENSO predictability and physical processes involved in tropical Pacific variability. Improvement in understanding is likely to lead to more accurate ENSO forecasts.