EAGER: A Novel Theoretical Study of Mid-latitude Atmospheric Predictability

这个EAGER项目将对可预见性如何从根本上受到限制，以及为什么可预见性可能因预测而异，进行更深入的物理理解。对湍流性质和可预测性之间联系的新见解将是这个项目的重要组成部分。与大多数早期主要依赖于线性化和不稳定性技术的大气可预测性工作不同，这项研究将采用完全非线性和概率方法。因此，当非线性很重要时，深入了解大气可预测性的本质是本研究的一个特别重点。统计物理学新发展的理论方法将应用于中纬度地区大气可预测性的问题。这将有助于探索统计可预测性、限制和可变性的本质。统计可预测性的这些方面与大气特征（如平均垂直切变）之间的联系；边界层阻尼和地转湍流将进行深入分析。此外，还将开发一种新的非扩散方法来参数化精细未解析运动尺度。

This EAGER project will develop a deeper physical understanding of how predictability is fundamentally limited and why it may vary from forecast to forecast. New insights into the connection between the nature of turbulence and predictability will be an important component of this project. Unlike most earlier work on atmospheric predictability that has predominantly relied on linearization and instability techniques, this research will adopt a fully non-linear and probabilistic approach. Consequently insights into the nature of atmospheric predictability when non-linearity is important is be a particular focus of this research.A newly developed theoretical methodology from statistical physics will be applied to the problem of atmospheric predictability in the mid latitudes. This will enable exploration of the nature of statistical predictability limits and variability. Connections between these aspects of statistical predictability and features of the atmosphere such as the mean vertical shear; boundary layer damping and geostrophic turbulence will be thoroughly analyzed. Additionally a new non-diffusive method of parameterizing the fine unresolved scales of motion will be developed.