EAGER: A Novel Theoretical Study of Mid-latitude Atmospheric Predictability

这个EAGER项目将对可预测性从根本上是如何受到限制的以及为什么它可能会因预测而异有更深的物理理解。对湍流性质和可预测性之间联系的新见解将是该项目的重要组成部分。与大多数早期的工作，主要依赖于线性化和不稳定性技术的大气可预报性，这项研究将采用完全非线性和概率的方法。因此，深入了解非线性影响下大气可预报性的本质是本研究的重点。本文将从统计物理学的角度出发，采用一种新的理论方法来研究中纬度地区大气可预报性问题。这将有助于探索统计可预测性限制和可变性的性质。这些方面的统计可预测性和大气特征，如平均垂直切变，边界层阻尼和地转湍流之间的联系将得到彻底分析。此外，一个新的非扩散的方法参数化的罚款未解决的规模的运动将被开发。

This EAGER project will develop a deeper physical understanding of how predictability is fundamentally limited and why it may vary from forecast to forecast. New insights into the connection between the nature of turbulence and predictability will be an important component of this project. Unlike most earlier work on atmospheric predictability that has predominantly relied on linearization and instability techniques, this research will adopt a fully non-linear and probabilistic approach. Consequently insights into the nature of atmospheric predictability when non-linearity is important is be a particular focus of this research.A newly developed theoretical methodology from statistical physics will be applied to the problem of atmospheric predictability in the mid latitudes. This will enable exploration of the nature of statistical predictability limits and variability. Connections between these aspects of statistical predictability and features of the atmosphere such as the mean vertical shear; boundary layer damping and geostrophic turbulence will be thoroughly analyzed. Additionally a new non-diffusive method of parameterizing the fine unresolved scales of motion will be developed.