Inventories, Oil Shocks, and Macroeconomic Dynamics

本研究将为研究库存行为提供新的方法，并对经济周期的成因和传播机制有新的认识。具体目标是开发一个适当的框架，将线性二次盘存模型应用于显示长期随机趋势的数据。我们还打算用这种方法来研究不同的两位数制造业部门，以表征库存、生产和最终销售对油价冲击的反应。我们还将找出可能涉及将冲击传播为经济衰退的跨部门和跨时间联系。最后，我们计划重新审视货币政策在考虑油价冲击与经济活动之间的历史相关性方面的作用的经验证据。

This research will generate new methods for studying the behavior of inventories and new insights into the causes and propagation mechanism of business cycles. The particular goals are to develop an appropriate framework for applying the linear-quadratic inventory model to data that exhibit long-run stochastic trends. We also intend to use this method to study different two-digit manufacturing sectors to characterize the response of inventories, production, and final sales to an oil price shock. We will also trace out the intersectoral and intertemporal linkages that may be involved in propagating the shock into an economic recession. Finally, we plan to re-examine the empirical evidence on the role of monetary policy in accounting for the historical correlation between oil price shocks and economic activity.