Inventories, Oil Shocks, and Macroeconomic Dynamics

库存、石油冲击和宏观经济动态

• 批准号: 0076072
• 负责人: James Hamilton
• 金额: $ 11.38万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-07-01 至 2002-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0076072&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Inventories; Oil; Shocks; Macroeconomic; Dynamics

This research will generate new methods for studying the behavior of inventories and new insights into the causes and propagation mechanism of business cycles. The particular goals are to develop an appropriate framework for applying the linear-quadratic inventory model to data that exhibit long-run stochastic trends. We also intend to use this method to study different two-digit manufacturing sectors to characterize the response of inventories, production, and final sales to an oil price shock. We will also trace out the intersectoral and intertemporal linkages that may be involved in propagating the shock into an economic recession. Finally, we plan to re-examine the empirical evidence on the role of monetary policy in accounting for the historical correlation between oil price shocks and economic activity.

这项研究将产生新的方法来研究库存的行为和新的见解的原因和传播机制的商业周期。具体的目标是开发一个适当的框架，应用线性二次库存模型的数据，表现出长期的随机趋势。 我们还打算使用这种方法来研究不同的两位数制造业部门，以描述库存，生产和最终销售对油价冲击的反应。 我们还将追踪可能参与将冲击传播为经济衰退的部门间和时间间联系。 最后，我们计划重新审视货币政策在解释油价冲击和经济活动之间历史相关性方面的作用的经验证据。