Advances in Macroeconomics and Econometrics

这项研究对企业定价行为产生了新的见解，并制定了指导方针，将有助于广泛的应用计量经济学工作。提出了两个方面的研究内容。第一个项目研究的问题是，为什么企业不立即根据新的经济基本面调整价格？这个问题切中了经济学中许多核心问题的核心。这里的新建议是研究一个具有足够数量的观察到的价格变化的长时间序列，以便我们可以对单个公司预测其价格变化的情况做出有用的统计陈述。基本情况菜单成本模型表明，过去的价格和基本面的历史应该只通过当前价格和基本价值之间的差距来影响观察到价格变化的概率。提出了一个框架来测试这一含义，并量化和解释在企业实际价格中观察到的替代动态。第二组项目研究了标准化在计量经济学中的作用。这个长期以来被认为与实质性问题无关的问题，最近被证明对一些模型中通常计算的估计脉冲响应函数和置信度区间产生了重大影响。这项研究提案提出了一个统一的原则，可以用来解决已经记录在案的问题，并在这一问题尚未得到承认的一些计量经济学应用中有所帮助。

This research generates new insights into firms' price-setting behavior and develops guidelines that will be helpful in a wide range of applied econometric work. Two areas of research are proposed. The first project studies the question, why don't firms instantly adjust their prices to new economic fundamentals? This question gets to the heart of many of the central issues in economics. The novel suggestion here is to study a long time series with a sufficient number of observed price changes that we can make a useful statistical statement about the conditions under which an individual firm is predicted to change its price. A base-case menu cost model is shown to have the implication that the past history of prices and fundamentals should influence the probability of observing a price change only through the gap between the current price and fundamental value. A framework is proposed for testing this implication and quantifying and interpreting alternative dynamics that are observed in firms' actual prices.The second set of projects studies the role of normalization in econometrics. This issue, long thought to be irrelevant for substantive questions, has recently been shown to make a significant difference for the estimated impulse-response functions and confidence intervals as typically calculated in a number of models. This research proposal suggests a unifying principle that could be used to resolve both the problems that have already been documented as well as help in a number of econometric applications where this issue has yet to be recognized.