Collaborative Research: Space Weather: Creation of a Real Time Ionospheric Electrodynamics Forecasting Model

ATM-0077555 Ridley这个合作方案的重点是创建和验证一个基于社区的实时和可追溯的高纬度电离层电动力学规范和预测工具。在其核心，该工具将拥有电离层电动力学同化映射(AMIE)技术。该模型将提前长达60分钟预测高纬度电离层的电动力学状态。此外，PI将通过一个简单的图形用户界面将代码提供给社区，使社区成员可以运行AMIE进行他们的活动。预测模型的创建将通过允许定量检查磁层和电离层的状态如何依赖于当前状态和外部驱动条件，对许多非稳态磁层过程，如亚层和风暴，给予基本的洞察。PI将执行AMIE和rtAMIE的定量验证。验证将给出AMIE上每个网格点的电离层电势和电导的平均误差估计。这些误差估计将是：(1)位置、(2)数据密度、(3)活动水平和(4)季节的函数。这种定量验证将允许代码的用户充分了解结果的准确性。没有其他电势模型具有这种能力，尽管它对电离层和磁层现象的研究至关重要。

ATM-0077555RidleyThis collaborative proposal focuses on the creation and validation of a community based real-time and retrospective high-latitude ionospheric electrodynamics specification and forecasting tool. At it's core, the tool will have the assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) technique. The model will make predictions of the eletrodynamic state of the high-latitude ionosphere for up to 60 minutes ahead of time. In addition, the PIs will make the code available to the community through a simple graphical user interface which will allow community members to run AMIE for their campaigns.The creation of the predictive model will give fundamental insight into many non-steady-state magnetospheric processes, such as substroms and storms by allowing a quantitative examination of how the state of the magnetosphere and ionosphere are dependent both on the current state and the external driving conditions.The PI's will perform a quantitative validation of AMIE and rtAMIE. The validation will give average error estimates for each grid point on AMIE for the ionospheric potential and conductances. These error estimates will be functions of: (1) location, (2) data density, (3) activity level, and (4)season. This quantitative validation will allow users of the code to fully understand the accurarcy of the results. No other electric potential model has this capability, even though it is crucially important for studies of ionospheric and magnetospheric phenomena.