Programmatic Risk Analysis for Critical Engineering Systems Under Tight Resource Constraints

资源紧张下关键工程系统的程序化风险分析

• 批准号: 0079872
• 负责人: M. Elisabeth Pate-Cornell
• 金额: $ 22.67万
• 依托单位: Stanford University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-09-01 至 2004-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0079872&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Programmatic; Risk; Analysis; Critical; Engineering

PROGRAMMATIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR CRITICAL ENGINEERING SYSTEMS UNDER TIGHT RESOURCE CONSTRAINTSABSTRACTEngineering projects are continually expected to accomplish more with fewer resources, and the dependencies among these projects are increasing. At NASA, for example, faster-better-cheaper (FBC) projects are being managed as programs to enhance the benefits of synergies among smaller projects, and to attenuate the risks of single large missions. Under tight resource constraints, FBC project managers must balance several types of failure risks including the effect of their project's performance on future missions. Existing risk analysis models generally focus on the quantification of either technical or management risks. Since it is difficult to balance simultaneously cost, schedule and performance of a given project as well as their effects on other projects, managers who face these problems can benefit from an integrated programmatic risk analysis. The goal of the proposed study is to develop a theoretical framework to integrate the analysis of both technical and management risks. It will be designed to quantify the tradeoffs among these two types of risk and to optimize a project's technical design and budget allocation. We will then incorporate into the model the effects of various amounts of testing and reviews, partial mission failures, and project dependencies within programs. Also, since current management decisions are often made based on intuition and an implicit reward system, we will capture these preferences in an illustrative example with a utility or valuation function that represents the objectives of the organization and its managers. This generic framework for modeling programmatic risks will be developed to support the management of interdependent projects within programs in different industries. An illustration will be provided based on the management of unmanned space missions and programs, and data available at NASA/JPL and its contractors.

严格资源约束下关键工程系统的项目风险分析SABSTRACT工程项目不断被期望以更少的资源完成更多的工作，这些项目之间的依赖性正在增加。 例如，在美国宇航局，更快、更好、更便宜（FBC）的项目正在被管理为提高小型项目之间协同效益的计划，并降低单个大型任务的风险。 在资源紧张的情况下，FBC项目经理必须平衡几种类型的失败风险，包括项目绩效对未来任务的影响。 现有的风险分析模型一般侧重于技术或管理风险的量化。 由于很难同时平衡某一项目的成本、进度和业绩及其对其他项目的影响，因此，面临这些问题的管理人员可以从综合方案风险分析中受益。 拟议研究的目标是开发一个理论框架，以整合技术和管理风险的分析。 它的目的是量化这两类风险之间的权衡，并优化项目的技术设计和预算分配。 然后，我们将把各种测试和评审量、部分使命失败和项目内项目依赖性的影响纳入模型。 此外，由于目前的管理决策往往是基于直觉和一个隐含的奖励系统，我们将在一个说明性的例子中捕捉这些偏好与效用或估值函数，代表组织及其管理者的目标。 这个通用的框架建模的程序性风险将被开发，以支持在不同行业的程序中的相互依赖的项目的管理。 将根据无人驾驶太空任务和计划的管理以及NASA/JPL及其承包商提供的数据提供说明。