Architecture of Hybrid Decision Support Sytem for Risk Management of Offshore Platforms

海上平台风险管理混合决策支持系统架构

• 批准号: 9110462
• 负责人: M. Elisabeth Pate-Cornell
• 金额: $ 9.16万
• 依托单位: Stanford University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1991-08-15 至 1994-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9110462&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Architecture; Hybrid; Decision; Support; Sytem

Risk management on offshore platforms requires real-time adaptation of procedures to existing conditions. These conditions can be caused either by environmental factors(e.g., storms or ice), on-board incidents(e.g., a fire), boat collisions, or degradation of the platform or its capacity(e.g., by corrosion.) In situations of risk, the operators generally follow procedures that have been predesigned, but some specific circumstances may not have been foreseen in the design of the procedures. An experienced operator can generally estimate the severity of a situation similar to one he has experienced previously and take appropriate measures. In some instances, however, more information is needed about the current risk situation, potential deterioration of this condition, applicable procedures, and alternative options before appropriate actions can be taken. The object of this research is to combine the powers of analytical methods (probabilistic risk assessment based on systems analysis) and artificial intelligence (expert systems based on recommendations of experienced operators and on operating/emergency procedures) in a hybrid real-time decision support system for risk management on board platforms. A key theoretical issue is the aggregation of these two types of information. A prototype will be developed. One possible option for this prototype is to address the problem of safety management for a redundant platform when the weather conditions make both delayed and immediate maintenance hazardous.

海上平台的风险管理需要实时适应 的程序，以现有的条件。 这些条件可以 或者由环境因素引起（例如，风暴或冰）， 车载事件（例如，火灾）、船只碰撞或退化 平台或其容量（例如，腐蚀）。 局势中 风险，运营商通常遵循已 预先设计，但某些特定情况下可能没有 在程序设计中预见。 有经验的操作者 通常可以估计类似情况的严重性 他以前经历过，并采取适当的措施。 然而，在某些情况下，需要更多的信息， 当前的风险状况，这种情况的潜在恶化， 适用的程序和备选办法， 可以采取行动。 本研究的目的是将联合收割机 分析方法的力量（概率风险评估 基于系统分析）和人工智能（专家 系统基于经验丰富的操作员的建议， 操作/紧急程序）中的混合实时决策 船上平台风险管理支持系统。 一个关键 理论问题是这两种类型的聚合 信息. 将开发原型。 一个可能选择 这个原型是为了解决安全管理问题， 当天气条件使得 延迟和即时维护危险。