Engineering Risk Management: A Normative Probabilistic Approach in a Dynamic Environment

工程风险管理：动态环境中的规范概率方法

• 批准号: 9422946
• 负责人: M. Elisabeth Pate-Cornell
• 金额: $ 15万
• 依托单位: Stanford University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-04-15 至 1998-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9422946&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Engineering; Risk; Management; Normative; Probabilistic

Management factors and organizational errors are major contributors to the risk of failure of large complex systems that often have severe health and environmental consequences. Environmental policy (both public and private) relies on risk management to forecast organizational and engineering performance as well as a means for reducing risks. Modeling in risk management, however, rarely accounts for robust interactions among human, engineering, and environmental systems. Social scientists and engineers tend to consider risk management differently and a bridge is needed between the two fields to take full advantage of the research of both. This research develops a normative risk management model (System-Actions- Management: SAM), involving both the technical parameters included in classical Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) and the organizational factors that affect them. The research extends earlier work on the characterization of the linkage between classical PRA and management factors by emphasizing the long-term dynamics of organizations and facilities. The resulting model will allow a more realistic and balanced consideration of social and behavioral factors in risk management decision making and priority setting.

管理因素和组织错误是造成大型复杂系统故障风险的主要因素，这些系统往往具有严重的健康和环境后果。环境政策(公共和私人)依赖风险管理来预测组织和工程绩效以及降低风险的手段。然而，风险管理中的建模很少考虑人类、工程和环境系统之间的强大交互作用。社会科学家和工程师倾向于以不同的方式看待风险管理，需要在这两个领域之间架起一座桥梁，以充分利用两者的研究。本研究发展了一个规范的风险管理模型(System-Actions-Management：SAM)，既包括经典概率风险分析(PRA)中包含的技术参数，也包括影响这些参数的组织因素。这项研究通过强调组织和设施的长期动态，扩展了早期关于经典PRA和管理因素之间联系的表征工作。由此产生的模型将允许在风险管理、决策和优先级设置中更现实和平衡地考虑社会和行为因素。