Engineering Risk Management: A Normative Probabilistic Approach in a Dynamic Environment

管理因素和组织错误是造成大型复杂系统故障风险的主要因素，这些系统往往具有严重的健康和环境后果。 环境政策（包括公共和私人）依赖于风险管理来预测组织和工程业绩以及降低风险的手段。 然而，风险管理中的建模很少考虑人类，工程和环境系统之间的鲁棒交互。 社会科学家和工程师倾向于以不同的方式考虑风险管理，这两个领域之间需要一个桥梁，以充分利用两者的研究。 本研究发展了一个规范的风险管理模型（系统-行动-管理：SAM），包括在经典的概率风险分析（PRA）的技术参数和影响他们的组织因素。 该研究扩展了早期的工作，经典PRA和管理因素之间的联系的特点，强调组织和设施的长期动态。 由此产生的模型将允许一个更现实和平衡的考虑社会和行为因素的风险管理决策和优先级设置。

Management factors and organizational errors are major contributors to the risk of failure of large complex systems that often have severe health and environmental consequences. Environmental policy (both public and private) relies on risk management to forecast organizational and engineering performance as well as a means for reducing risks. Modeling in risk management, however, rarely accounts for robust interactions among human, engineering, and environmental systems. Social scientists and engineers tend to consider risk management differently and a bridge is needed between the two fields to take full advantage of the research of both. This research develops a normative risk management model (System-Actions- Management: SAM), involving both the technical parameters included in classical Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) and the organizational factors that affect them. The research extends earlier work on the characterization of the linkage between classical PRA and management factors by emphasizing the long-term dynamics of organizations and facilities. The resulting model will allow a more realistic and balanced consideration of social and behavioral factors in risk management decision making and priority setting.