Risk Management by Organizations: A Generalized ReliabilityModel Under Distributed Decision Making

一些技术（如太空探索，航空旅行和电力） 发电）为社会提供了巨大的利益，但 故障的严重后果，如以下事故所示， 挑战者号航天飞机和切尔诺贝利核反应堆。 为了高度可靠地使用这些技术， 在设计、施工和管理过程中采用严格的风险管理方法， 行动，特别是当几个团体参与 与安全有关的决定。 这项跨学科研究旨在 将组织效应纳入经典可靠性 考核 它将产生一个定量的衡量标准， 通过评估这些因素， 分层结构、激励机制和协议， 决策会影响身体风险。 全国空气 交通控制系统是建议的应用。 特别令人感兴趣的是安全阈值的形成（ 系统全部或部分的最大允许故障概率） 或不同的团体参与;标准的方式， 随着系统操作变得常规而演变（例如， 以及这种变化对整个系统的影响 可靠性

Some technologies (such as space exploration, air travel, and electric power generation) offer significant benefits to society, but have severe consequences of failure, as demonstrated by such accidents as with the space shuttle Challenger and the Chernobyl nuclear reactor. The need for highly reliable use of such technologies requires a disciplined approach to risk management in design, construction, and operations, particularly when several groups are involved in safety-related decisions. This interdisciplinary study is designed to incorporate organizational effects into classical reliability assessment. It will generate one quantitative measure of organizational effectiveness by assessing how such factors as hierarchical structure, incentives, and protocols for distributed decision-making can affect the physical risk. The national air traffic control system is the proposed application. Of particular interest is the formation of safety thresholds (the maximum allowable failure probability for all or part of the system) or the different groups involved; the way in which the standards evolve as system operation becomes routine (for example, drift toward laxity); and the effect of such variations on the overall system reliability.