Risk Management by Organizations: A Generalized ReliabilityModel Under Distributed Decision Making

组织风险管理：分布式决策下的广义可靠性模型

• 批准号: 8709810
• 负责人: M. Elisabeth Pate-Cornell
• 金额: $ 7.5万
• 依托单位: Stanford University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1987
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1987-07-15 至 1989-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8709810&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Risk; Management; Organizations; Generalized; ReliabilityModel

Some technologies (such as space exploration, air travel, and electric power generation) offer significant benefits to society, but have severe consequences of failure, as demonstrated by such accidents as with the space shuttle Challenger and the Chernobyl nuclear reactor. The need for highly reliable use of such technologies requires a disciplined approach to risk management in design, construction, and operations, particularly when several groups are involved in safety-related decisions. This interdisciplinary study is designed to incorporate organizational effects into classical reliability assessment. It will generate one quantitative measure of organizational effectiveness by assessing how such factors as hierarchical structure, incentives, and protocols for distributed decision-making can affect the physical risk. The national air traffic control system is the proposed application. Of particular interest is the formation of safety thresholds (the maximum allowable failure probability for all or part of the system) or the different groups involved; the way in which the standards evolve as system operation becomes routine (for example, drift toward laxity); and the effect of such variations on the overall system reliability.

一些技术（例如太空探索、航空旅行和发电）为社会带来了巨大的好处，但一旦失败就会带来严重的后果，挑战者号航天飞机和切尔诺贝利核反应堆等事故就证明了这一点。 要高度可靠地使用此类技术，就需要在设计、施工和运营中采用严格的风险管理方法，特别是当多个团队参与安全相关决策时。 这项跨学科研究旨在将组织效应纳入经典的可靠性评估中。 它将通过评估层次结构、激励措施和分布式决策协议等因素如何影响物理风险，生成一种组织有效性的定量衡量标准。 国家空中交通管制系统是拟议的应用。 特别令人感兴趣的是安全阈值（系统全部或部分的最大允许故障概率）或涉及的不同群体的形成；随着系统操作变得常规，标准演变的方式（例如，趋于宽松）；以及这种变化对整个系统可靠性的影响。