Dynamics of An Emerging Pathogen in an Introduced Host

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In recent decades many new diseases have emerged. In some cases existing disease organisms jumped to novel hosts with sometimes devastating effects. In 1994 a new strain of Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG), a bacterium common in poultry, appeared and spread very rapidly through the house finches of eastern North America. This caused house finches to decline within 2-3 years by 100-200 million birds, stabilizing at 40% of pre-disease levels. The researchers will continue to monitor MG prevalence and house finch abundance across the entire continent, involving large numbers of volunteers; carry out intensive fieldwork to gather information about the ecology and behavior of both infected and non-infected house finches; and perform controlled aviary experiments to measure the rate of transmission of MG among house finches. Emphasis will be placed on identifying human-related factors that modify the spread and maintenance of the disease. This information will be used to develop and validate general predictive models that can be applied to similar systems. Understanding which factors are responsible for the emergence of new diseases, which factors favor for their spread, and how they affect their hosts is essential to the control of new diseases.