Analyzing and Modeling Interannual to Decadal Variability in the Carbon Cycle of the Subtropical and Subpolar Gyres

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ABSTRACTOCE-0097337The prediction of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations requires an in depth understanding of the feedbacks that operate between the physical, biological and chemical components of the global climate system. One means of studying these feedbacks is to investigate observed past variability in the marine carbon cycle, as has been done in the tropical Pacific in connection with the El Nino Southern Oscillation. However, little is known about the contribution of the subtropical and subpolar gyres to atmospheric CO2 variations, despite the fact that these gyres cover more that half of the world's ocean. For this reason, principal investigators from the University of California-Los Angeles, the Bermuda Biological Research Station and the National Center for Atmospheric Research will address this gap by focusing on the following goals: (1) quantify the variability in the marine carbon cycle in the subtropical and subpolar gyres on interannual to decadal time scales and determine the role of these oceanic regions in the observed temporal and spatial variability in atmospheric CO2; (2) evaluate and quantify the contributions from biological and physical processes to the observed variability; and (3) establish the feedbacks that operate between the physical, chemical and biological processes in the ocean. Results from this study will significantly advance the understanding of the response of the upper ocean carbon cycle to interannual variability.