BE/CNH: Understanding and Modeling the Scope for Adaptive Management in Agroecosystems in the Pampas: Response to Interannual and Decadal Climate Variability and Other Risk Factors

农业生态系统将自然生态系统中生物物理相互作用的复杂性、多样性和反馈与人类决策的额外错综复杂结合在一起。气候多变性是农业生产的最大风险来源之一。特别是，季节到年际和年代际尺度上的气候波动与决策、资源管理和基础设施规划有关。在季节到年际尺度上，预测与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)现象有关的区域气候变异性的新能力为研究农业等复杂系统可能如何反应提供了一个天然的实验室。研究这种反应的绝佳地点是阿根廷中东部的潘帕斯，这是一个显示出明显的年际和年代际气候信号的主要农业区。在年代际尺度上，自1970年代以来春夏降水量的增加促进了土地利用模式的重大变化和阿根廷农业产量的大幅增加。然而，人们越来越担心环境后果以及生产和生命支持系统的可持续性。这一跨学科研究项目将解决这些问题，这些问题是农业生态系统中自然和人类成分动态相互作用的一部分。将特别重视评估适应管理的范围，以回应关于气候变化的新知识和对人类决策的最新见解。该项目将：(1)绘制潘帕斯大草原农业系统决策格局的主要组成部分；(2)建立年际和年代际气候变异性的合理情景；(3)评估气候变异性的影响和结果；(4)设法了解如何接收和处理气候信息的概率和不确定性；(5)探讨设计和交流气候信息和不确定性的最佳做法；(6)评估人类行动对自然系统的影响；(7)对促进或阻碍综合性科学研究和推广以及利益攸关方参与的外联活动的因素进行自我反思分析。该项目涉及气候情景和决策结果的关联建模方法，决策和行为的受控实验，以及将利用背景知识和农业利益攸关方的经验和偏好进行参与性研究。气候变异性与决策之间的联系是影响许多地区和部门资源管理的根本问题。该项目将对一个重要而普遍的复杂系统(农业生产)进行综合分析，该系统涉及几个自然和人类系统之间的相互作用。从科学创新的角度来看，该项目将制定概念和程序办法，以弥合气候情景的空间和时间尺度以及与区域影响评估和资源管理相关的尺度。规模不匹配一直是气候影响评估问题的核心。该项目将包括以现代统计和计算技术为基础的不确定性的完全概率特征。不确定性估计的可获得性将提高项目结果对利益攸关方的重要性。最后，对跨学科、多地点合作和利益相关者参与综合科学的挑战进行反思分析，将促进与其他地方的生物复杂性问题相关的理论发展。潘帕斯的生产规模、作物种植和技术与其他主要产区(如美国中西部、巴西和加拿大)的生产规模、作物种植和技术相似，具有类似的气候信号，这表明该项目成果具有更广泛的相关性。该项目得到了2004财年环境中生物复杂性特别竞赛的一个奖项的支持，该竞赛的重点是自然和人类耦合系统的动态变化。

Agricultural ecosystems combine the complexity, multiplicity of scales, and feedbacks of biophysical interactions in natural ecosystems with the additional intricacies of human decision making. Climate variability is one of the top sources of risk to agricultural production. In particular, climate fluctuations on seasonal-to-interannual and interdecadal scales are relevant to decision-making, resource management, and infrastructure planning. On seasonal-to-interannual scales, the emerging ability to forecast regional climate variability associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon offers a natural laboratory to learn how a complex system such as agriculture may respond. An excellent site to study such responses is the Pampas of central-eastern Argentina, a major agricultural region that shows marked interannual and interdecadal climate signals. On interdecadal scales, an increase in spring-summer precipitation since the 1970s has contributed to significant changes in land-use patterns and a large increase in Argentine agricultural output. There are growing concerns about the environmental consequences and the sustainability of production and life support systems, however. This interdisciplinary research project will address these issues, which are part of the dynamic interactions of natural and human components in agroecosystems. Special emphasis will be placed on assessing the scope for adaptive management in response to newly available knowledge on climate variability and recent insights on human decision making. The project will (1) map key components of the decision landscape in agricultural systems of the Pampas; (2) build plausible scenarios of interannual and interdecadal climate variability; (3) assess impacts and outcomes of climate variability; (4) seek to understand how probabilistic climate information and uncertainty about outcomes are received and acted upon; (5) explore best practices for the design and communication of climate information and the characterization of uncertainty; (6) assess consequences on natural systems of human actions; and (7) conduct a self-reflective analysis of factors that promote or impede integrative science research and outreach with stakeholder participation. The project involves linked modeling approaches for generation of climate scenarios and decision outcomes, controlled experiments on decision making and behavior, and participatory research that will draw on contextual knowledge and agricultural stakeholders' experiences and preferences.The link between climate variability and decision making is a fundamental issue that influences resource management in many regions and sectors. This project will provide an integrated analysis of an important and prevalent complex system (agricultural production) that involves interactions between several natural and human systems. From a perspective of scientific innovation, the project will develop conceptual and procedural approaches to bridge the spatial and temporal scales of climate scenarios and the scales associated with regional impact assessment and resource management. Scale mismatch has been at the heart of problems of climate impact assessment. The project will include a fully probabilistic characterization of uncertainty based on modern statistical and computational techniques. The availability of uncertainty estimates will enhance the salience of project findings for stakeholders. Finally, a reflective analysis of the challenges of interdisciplinary, multiple-place collaboration, and stakeholder involvement in integrative science will stimulate theory development relevant to biocomplexity problems elsewhere. The similarity in production scale, crops grown, and technology of the Pampas to those in other major production areas (such as the U.S. Midwest, Brazil, and Canada) with comparable climate signals suggest a broader relevance of results from the project. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2004 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.