BE/CNH: Understanding and Modeling the Scope for Adaptive Management in Agroecosystems in the Pampas: Response to Interannual and Decadal Climate Variability and Other Risk Factors

BE/CNH：了解潘帕斯草原农业生态系统适应性管理的范围并对其进行建模：对年际和十年间气候变化和其他风险因素的响应

• 批准号: 0410348
• 负责人: Guillermo Podesta
• 金额: $ 160万
• 依托单位: University of Miami
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-01 至 2010-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0410348&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Understanding; Modeling; Scope; Adaptive

Agricultural ecosystems combine the complexity, multiplicity of scales, and feedbacks of biophysical interactions in natural ecosystems with the additional intricacies of human decision making. Climate variability is one of the top sources of risk to agricultural production. In particular, climate fluctuations on seasonal-to-interannual and interdecadal scales are relevant to decision-making, resource management, and infrastructure planning. On seasonal-to-interannual scales, the emerging ability to forecast regional climate variability associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon offers a natural laboratory to learn how a complex system such as agriculture may respond. An excellent site to study such responses is the Pampas of central-eastern Argentina, a major agricultural region that shows marked interannual and interdecadal climate signals. On interdecadal scales, an increase in spring-summer precipitation since the 1970s has contributed to significant changes in land-use patterns and a large increase in Argentine agricultural output. There are growing concerns about the environmental consequences and the sustainability of production and life support systems, however. This interdisciplinary research project will address these issues, which are part of the dynamic interactions of natural and human components in agroecosystems. Special emphasis will be placed on assessing the scope for adaptive management in response to newly available knowledge on climate variability and recent insights on human decision making. The project will (1) map key components of the decision landscape in agricultural systems of the Pampas; (2) build plausible scenarios of interannual and interdecadal climate variability; (3) assess impacts and outcomes of climate variability; (4) seek to understand how probabilistic climate information and uncertainty about outcomes are received and acted upon; (5) explore best practices for the design and communication of climate information and the characterization of uncertainty; (6) assess consequences on natural systems of human actions; and (7) conduct a self-reflective analysis of factors that promote or impede integrative science research and outreach with stakeholder participation. The project involves linked modeling approaches for generation of climate scenarios and decision outcomes, controlled experiments on decision making and behavior, and participatory research that will draw on contextual knowledge and agricultural stakeholders' experiences and preferences.The link between climate variability and decision making is a fundamental issue that influences resource management in many regions and sectors. This project will provide an integrated analysis of an important and prevalent complex system (agricultural production) that involves interactions between several natural and human systems. From a perspective of scientific innovation, the project will develop conceptual and procedural approaches to bridge the spatial and temporal scales of climate scenarios and the scales associated with regional impact assessment and resource management. Scale mismatch has been at the heart of problems of climate impact assessment. The project will include a fully probabilistic characterization of uncertainty based on modern statistical and computational techniques. The availability of uncertainty estimates will enhance the salience of project findings for stakeholders. Finally, a reflective analysis of the challenges of interdisciplinary, multiple-place collaboration, and stakeholder involvement in integrative science will stimulate theory development relevant to biocomplexity problems elsewhere. The similarity in production scale, crops grown, and technology of the Pampas to those in other major production areas (such as the U.S. Midwest, Brazil, and Canada) with comparable climate signals suggest a broader relevance of results from the project. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2004 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

农业生态系统结合了自然生态系统中生物物理相互作用的复杂性、多样性和反馈，以及人类决策的额外复杂性。气候变率是农业生产风险的主要来源之一。特别是，季节至年际和年代际尺度上的气候波动与决策、资源管理和基础设施规划有关。在季节到年际尺度上，预测与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）现象相关的区域气候变化的能力正在兴起，这为研究像农业这样的复杂系统如何作出反应提供了一个天然的实验室。研究这种反应的绝佳地点是阿根廷中东部的潘帕斯草原，这是一个主要的农业区，显示出明显的年际和年代际气候信号。在年代际尺度上，自1970年代以来春夏降水的增加促成了土地利用格局的重大变化和阿根廷农业产出的大量增加。然而，人们越来越关注生产和生命支持系统的环境后果和可持续性。这个跨学科研究项目将解决这些问题，这些问题是农业生态系统中自然和人类成分动态相互作用的一部分。将特别强调评估适应性管理的范围，以响应关于气候变率的新知识和关于人类决策的最新见解。该项目将(1)绘制潘帕斯草原农业系统决策景观的关键组成部分；(2)建立年际和年代际气候变率的可信情景；(3)评估气候变率的影响和结果；(4)寻求理解概率气候信息和结果的不确定性是如何被接收和采取行动的；(5)探索设计和传播气候信息以及不确定性特征的最佳做法；(6)评估人类活动对自然系统的影响；(7)对促进或阻碍利益相关者参与的综合科学研究和推广的因素进行自我反思分析。该项目涉及用于生成气候情景和决策结果的关联建模方法、关于决策和行为的对照实验，以及将利用背景知识和农业利益相关者的经验和偏好的参与性研究。气候变率与决策之间的联系是影响许多区域和部门资源管理的一个根本问题。该项目将对一个重要而普遍的复杂系统（农业生产）进行综合分析，该系统涉及几个自然系统和人类系统之间的相互作用。从科学创新的角度来看，该项目将制定概念性和程序性的方法，以连接气候情景的时空尺度和与区域影响评估和资源管理相关的尺度。尺度错配一直是气候影响评估的核心问题。该项目将包括基于现代统计和计算技术的不确定性的完全概率特征。不确定性评估的可用性将增强项目发现对干系人的显著性。最后，对跨学科、多地点合作和利益相关者参与综合科学的挑战进行反思分析，将刺激其他地方生物复杂性问题相关的理论发展。潘帕斯草原的生产规模、作物种植和技术与其他主要产区（如美国中西部、巴西和加拿大）具有相似的气候信号，这表明该项目的结果具有更广泛的相关性。该项目得到了2004年度环境生物复杂性特别竞赛的支持，该竞赛侧重于自然和人类系统耦合动力学。