Applying Ice Cores, Instrumental Climate Records and Climate Modeling Towards a Mechanistic Understanding of Antarctic Climate Variability on Interannual to Multidecadal Time Scale

NCAR的研究人员致力于研究南极气候在过去250年的年际、数十年和更长时间尺度上的变化，以此作为更好地理解控制南极地区气候变化的潜在物理机制的手段。将结合和解释一系列观测、建模和代理(如冰芯)信息。重点是分析和解释过去250年来南极冰芯记录的年际到数十年的变化。将利用对观测冰芯记录的分析来确定变化的主要模式，并将这些模式与现有的南极温度重建和各种仪器数据集的热带气候异常联系起来。特别是，模拟实验将用于研究与温室气体和平流层臭氧浓度变化相关的海面温度强迫(热带与热带)和直接大气辐射强迫对南极气候变异性的相对作用。模拟部分将使用现有的和修改的大气环流模拟，由1870年至今的观测历史驱动。最新的CCSM CAM(社区气候系统模型，社区大气模型)模型的增强将被用于评估同位素模型的性能，并拓宽当前对冰芯记录的解释。参与正在进行的独立资助的NCAR少数群体服务于教育工作(SOARS-大气研究的重要机会)是作为一种扩大对大气和相关科学的参与的手段。该奖项由2009年美国复苏和再投资法案(公共法律111-5)资助。

AbstractResearchers at NCAR aim to address Antarctic climate variability on interannual, multidecadal and longer timescales over the past ~250 years as a means to better understand the underlying physical mechanisms controlling climate change in the southern polar region. A range of observational, modeling and proxy (e.g. ice core) information will be combined and interpreted. Effort will be focused on the analysis and mechanistic interpretation of the interannual-to-multidecadal variability in the Antarctic ice core records over the past ~250 years. Analyses of observational ice core records will be used to define the leading patterns of variability and relate those to existing Antarctic temperature reconstructions and to tropical climate anomalies from various instrumental data sets. In particular, modeling experiments will be used to examine the relative roles of sea surface temperature forcing (tropical vs. extra-tropical) and direct atmospheric radiative forcing associated with changes in greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone concentrations on Antarctic climate variability.The modeling component will use existing and modified atmospheric general circulation simulations driven with observational history from 1870 to the present. An augmentation of the most recent CCSM CAM (Community Climate System Model, Community Atmospheric Model) model explicitly incorporating a water isotope tracer scheme will be used to evaluate the isotope model performance, and to broaden current interpretation of ice core records.Participation in an ongoing and independently funded NCAR minority serving education effort (SOARS - Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research) is offered as a means of broadening participation in the atmospheric and related sciences."This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5)."