ITR/AP(Geo): Collaborative Proposal for First Generation Model and Data Assimilation System to Reduce Volcanic Hazards

ITR/AP(Geo)：减少火山灾害的第一代模型和数据同化系统的合作提案

• 批准号: 0112694
• 负责人: Timothy Dixon
• 金额: $ 13.64万
• 依托单位: University of Miami
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-09-01 至 2005-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0112694&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: ITR; AP; Geo; Collaborative; Proposal

0112694DixonThis grant, supported through funds from the NSF/Information Technology Research - Small Grants Program and the EAR/Instrumentation and Facilities Program, will enable the development of a first-generation data and model assimilation system for volcanic hazard assessment. Essentially, this system will use Bayesian forecasting techniques to construct hazard estimates that incorporate both prior geologic information and near-real-time data types. The primary goal is to demonstrate, through the application of information technology methodologies, that such disparate geologic data types can be combined smoothly, even during volcanic crises, to yield improved estimates of hazard and risk. The focus will be on hazards associated with the dispersion and accumulation of volcanic tephra (volcanic ash), both because of the importance of this volcanic hazard and our previous experience in forecasting tephra hazards. Models will be used to relate observed tephra-stratigraphies at several volcanoes (Colima, Cerro Negro, Montserrat, Popocateptal) to sets of input parameters, including eruption duration, initial gas content, and meteorological conditions. We plan to explore several techniques (inversion, simplified models, database development) to relate observed patterns of volcano deformation directly to the parameter estimates used in tephra fallout models. The system will be constructed using parallel algorithms to exploit inexpensive and widely available PC clusters. Through the auspices of an ITR grant, we plan to clearly demonstrate the huge advantages realized by, for the first time, systematically linking the geologic record, process models, and near-real time monitoring results. For tephra accumulation hazards specifically, this approach will further lead to a clear understanding of the links between deformation, magma processes, and the fundamental parameters governing tephra dispersion and accumulation. In this sense, the results of the systematic approach advocated here will provide guidance about the volcanological research most likely to results in volcanic hazard reduction. This research will be conducted as a collaborative proposal between the University of Miami, the University of South Florida, and Southwest Research Institute (nonprofit). In addition, international collaboration with the University of Bristol will bring expertise on tephra dispersion modeling and data on the important Montserrat eruptions to the project. Students will contribute to all phases of the project, including geological research, model development, and software development. After appropriate testing, we plan to make the results of this project widely available by open-sourcing the codes and providing assistance in implementation of PC clusters to the volcanological community. ***

0112694 Dixonthis Grant通过NSF/信息技术研究的资金支持 - 小型赠款计划和EAR/Instrumentation and设施计划，它将能够开发用于火山危害评估的第一代数据和模型同化系统。 本质上，该系统将使用贝叶斯预测技术来构建危害估计，这些危害估计既包含先前的地质信息和近实时数据类型。主要目标是通过应用信息技术方法来证明这种不同的地质数据类型即使在火山危机期间也可以平稳地组合在一起，以提高危害和风险的估计值。重点将放在与火山Tephra（火山灰）的分散和积累相关的危害上，这都是由于这种火山危害的重要性以及我们以前在预测Tephra危险方面的经验。 模型将用于将观察到的Tephra-Stratigraphies与几个火山（Colima，Cerro negro，Montserrat，popocateptal）与一组输入参数相关联，包括喷发持续时间，初始气体含量和气象条件。 我们计划探索几种技术（反转，简化模型，数据库开发），以将观测到的火山变形模式直接与Tephra辐射模型中使用的参数估计值联系起来。该系统将使用并行算法构建，以利用便宜且可广泛可用的PC簇。 通过ITR赠款的主持人，我们计划清楚地证明，这是第一次实现的巨大优势，该优势首次将地质记录，过程模型和近乎实际的时间监视结果链接。对于Tephra的积累危害，这种方法将进一步明确理解变形，岩浆过程与管理Tephra分散和积累的基本参数之间的联系。从这个意义上讲，此处提倡的系统方法的结果将为最有可能导致减少火山危险的火山研究提供指导。 这项研究将作为迈阿密大学，南佛罗里达大学和西南研究所（非营利组织）之间的合作提议进行。此外，与布里斯托大学的国际合作将为Tephra分散建模和有关该项目重要的蒙特塞拉特爆发的数据提供专业知识。学生将为项目的所有阶段做出贡献，包括地质研究，模型开发和软件开发。经过适当的测试后，我们计划通过开放式代码并为火山学界实施PC簇提供帮助，从而使该项目的结果广泛可用。 ***