RUI: The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change

RUI：气候变化的二氧化碳理论

• 批准号: 0114998
• 负责人: James Fleming
• 金额: $ 10万
• 依托单位: Colby College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-09-01 至 2005-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0114998&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RUI; Carbon; Dioxide; Theory; Climate

AbstractJamesFleming, Colby CollegeThe Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change: Emergence, Eclipse, and ReemergenceThis study documents the discovery and early development of the carbon dioxide theory of climate change, its eclipse during the first five decades of the twentieth century, and its reemergence after 1950. It also examines subsequent developments in modeling, monitoring and climate reconstructions, while examining more recent social and political implications of the theory. Based on archives, interviews, expert consultations, and primary printed sources, the study provides an historical context for understanding current climate concerns. It also demonstrates the importance of intellectual and social changes in the study of global environmental change. In the nineteenth century, the work of John Tyndall, Svante Arrhenius, T.C. Chamberlin and others drew scientific attention to the role of carbon dioxide as a possible mechanism of climate change. Throughout the first half of the twentieth century, however, most scientists did not think that increased carbon dioxide levels would result in global warming. It was believed that current levels of carbon dioxide already absorbed all the available long-wave radiation, so any increases would not significantly alter the radiative heat balance of the planet. Most meteorologists gave other mechanisms of climatic change more credence. Beginning in 1938 the work of Guy Steward Callendar, Gilbert Plass, Hans Seuss, Roger Revelle, Charles Keeling and others revived the carbon dioxide theory of climate change and placed it on a more solid scientific basis. Callendar based his theory on new detailed measurements of the infrared spectrum, further noting that the warming trend from about 1900 to 1938 might be related to rising fossil fuel emissions. Seuss and Revelle later named the rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by industrial fuel combustion the "Callendar effect."In the second half of the twentieth century, computers, satellites, and reconstructions of past climate records provided new privileged perspectives on the climate, allowing the emergence of a scientific consensus (but not unanimity) on the carbon dioxide theory of climate change. The state of climate science (in theory and in practice) during this convergence of opinion will be contrasted with that during the earlier eclipse and re-emergence phases. By the 1950s, station temperatures around the Northern Hemisphere reached early-twentieth-century peaks, giving credence to Callendar's warnings and placing climate warming on the public agenda. Concerns were expressed in both the scientific and popular press about rising sea levels, loss of habitat, and shifting agricultural zones. This was followed by a global cooling scare in the 1970s and the re-emergence of global warming consensus through the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Framework Convention on Climate Change. The project concludes with a reconsideration of the human dimensions of climate change in light of history, including popular perceptions, economic and public policy initiatives, and politicization of the issues.Outcomes include paper at professional historical and scientific meetings, refereed journal articles, materials posted on a WWW Center for the History of Meteorology web site, and a fully-documented book.

摘要jamesfleming，Colby Collegethe二氧化碳的气候变化理论：出现，日食和重新施加征收的研究记录，研究记录了气候变化碳二氧化碳理论的发现和早期发展，其蚀是其在二十世纪的前五十年中的Eclipse，以及在1950年之后的二十世纪及其在1950年进行了调查。该理论的社会和政治含义。根据档案，访谈，专家咨询和主要印刷资源，该研究为了解当前的气候问题提供了历史背景。它还证明了智力和社会变化在全球环境变化研究中的重要性。 在十九世纪，约翰·廷德尔（John Tyndall），斯文特·阿里尼乌斯（T.C.）的作品 张伯林和其他人对二氧化碳作为气候变化的可能机制的作用引起了科学的关注。然而，在整个20世纪上半叶，大多数科学家认为二氧化碳水平升高不会导致全球变暖。人们认为，当前的二氧化碳水平已经吸收了所有可用的长波辐射，因此任何增加都不会显着改变行星的辐射热平衡。大多数气象学家还提供了其他气候变化的机制。 从1938年开始，Guy Steward Callendar，Gilbert Plass，Hans Seuss，Roger Revelle，Charles Keeling等人恢复了气候变化的二氧化碳理论，并将其放在更扎实的科学基础上。 Callendar的理论基于对红外光谱的新详细测量，进一步指出，从1900年到1938年的变暖趋势可能与化石燃料排放量的增加有关。苏斯（Seuss）和雷维尔（Revelle）后来命名了由工业燃料燃烧引起的大气二氧化碳的上升水平是“ callendar效应”。在二十世纪下半叶，计算机，卫星和过去气候记录的重建提供了对气候的新特权观点，从而使科学共识的出现（但不是单一的宣言）。在这种意见融合期间，气候科学的状态（在理论上和实践中）将与早期的日食和重新出现阶段中的状态形成鲜明对比。到1950年代，北半球周围的车站温度达到了二十世纪初的山峰，这使Callendar的警告并在公共议程上升温了气候变暖。科学和大众媒体在海平面上升，栖息地的丧失以及不断变化的农业区都表达了担忧。接下来是1970年代的全球冷却恐慌，以及通过政府间气候变化和气候变化框架框架公约的工作，全球变暖共识的重新出现。该项目以历史上的气候变化的人类维度重新考虑，包括流行的看法，经济和公共政策计划以及对问题的政治化。