RUI: The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change

RUI：气候变化的二氧化碳理论

• 批准号: 0114998
• 负责人: James Fleming
• 金额: $ 10万
• 依托单位: Colby College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-09-01 至 2005-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0114998&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RUI; Carbon; Dioxide; Theory; Climate

AbstractJamesFleming, Colby CollegeThe Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change: Emergence, Eclipse, and ReemergenceThis study documents the discovery and early development of the carbon dioxide theory of climate change, its eclipse during the first five decades of the twentieth century, and its reemergence after 1950. It also examines subsequent developments in modeling, monitoring and climate reconstructions, while examining more recent social and political implications of the theory. Based on archives, interviews, expert consultations, and primary printed sources, the study provides an historical context for understanding current climate concerns. It also demonstrates the importance of intellectual and social changes in the study of global environmental change. In the nineteenth century, the work of John Tyndall, Svante Arrhenius, T.C. Chamberlin and others drew scientific attention to the role of carbon dioxide as a possible mechanism of climate change. Throughout the first half of the twentieth century, however, most scientists did not think that increased carbon dioxide levels would result in global warming. It was believed that current levels of carbon dioxide already absorbed all the available long-wave radiation, so any increases would not significantly alter the radiative heat balance of the planet. Most meteorologists gave other mechanisms of climatic change more credence. Beginning in 1938 the work of Guy Steward Callendar, Gilbert Plass, Hans Seuss, Roger Revelle, Charles Keeling and others revived the carbon dioxide theory of climate change and placed it on a more solid scientific basis. Callendar based his theory on new detailed measurements of the infrared spectrum, further noting that the warming trend from about 1900 to 1938 might be related to rising fossil fuel emissions. Seuss and Revelle later named the rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by industrial fuel combustion the "Callendar effect."In the second half of the twentieth century, computers, satellites, and reconstructions of past climate records provided new privileged perspectives on the climate, allowing the emergence of a scientific consensus (but not unanimity) on the carbon dioxide theory of climate change. The state of climate science (in theory and in practice) during this convergence of opinion will be contrasted with that during the earlier eclipse and re-emergence phases. By the 1950s, station temperatures around the Northern Hemisphere reached early-twentieth-century peaks, giving credence to Callendar's warnings and placing climate warming on the public agenda. Concerns were expressed in both the scientific and popular press about rising sea levels, loss of habitat, and shifting agricultural zones. This was followed by a global cooling scare in the 1970s and the re-emergence of global warming consensus through the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Framework Convention on Climate Change. The project concludes with a reconsideration of the human dimensions of climate change in light of history, including popular perceptions, economic and public policy initiatives, and politicization of the issues.Outcomes include paper at professional historical and scientific meetings, refereed journal articles, materials posted on a WWW Center for the History of Meteorology web site, and a fully-documented book.

【摘要】詹姆士·弗莱明，科尔比学院《二氧化碳气候变化理论：出现、消失和重新出现》本研究记录了二氧化碳气候变化理论的发现和早期发展、20世纪前50年的消失和1950年后的重新出现。它还考察了建模、监测和气候重建方面的后续发展，同时考察了该理论最近的社会和政治影响。该研究基于档案、访谈、专家咨询和主要印刷资料，为了解当前气候问题提供了历史背景。它还证明了智力和社会变化在全球环境变化研究中的重要性。在19世纪，约翰·廷德尔、斯万特·阿伦尼乌斯、T.C.钱伯林等人的工作引起了科学界对二氧化碳作为气候变化可能机制的关注。然而，在整个20世纪上半叶，大多数科学家并不认为二氧化碳浓度的增加会导致全球变暖。人们认为，目前的二氧化碳水平已经吸收了所有可用的长波辐射，因此任何增加都不会显著改变地球的辐射热平衡。大多数气象学家更相信气候变化的其他机制。从1938年开始，盖伊·斯图尔德·卡伦达、吉尔伯特·普拉斯、汉斯·苏斯、罗杰·雷维尔、查尔斯·基林等人的工作使气候变化的二氧化碳理论复活，并使其有了更坚实的科学基础。Callendar的理论基于对红外光谱的详细测量，并进一步指出1900年至1938年的变暖趋势可能与化石燃料排放的增加有关。苏斯和雷维尔后来将工业燃料燃烧引起的大气二氧化碳水平上升命名为“日历效应”。在20世纪下半叶，计算机、卫星和对过去气候记录的重建为研究气候提供了新的有利视角，使得在二氧化碳气候变化理论上形成了科学共识（但不是完全一致）。在这一观点趋同期间，气候科学（在理论和实践上）的状态将与之前的日食和再次出现阶段形成对比。到20世纪50年代，北半球气象站的温度达到了20世纪初的峰值，这使卡伦达的警告得到了证实，并将气候变暖提上了公共议程。科学和大众媒体都表达了对海平面上升、栖息地丧失和农业区转移的担忧。随后是20世纪70年代的全球变冷恐慌，通过政府间气候变化专门委员会和《气候变化框架公约》的工作，全球变暖共识再次出现。该项目最后从历史的角度重新考虑了气候变化的人类层面，包括公众的看法、经济和公共政策举措以及问题的政治化。研究成果包括在专业历史和科学会议上发表的论文、经评审的期刊文章、发布在气象学历史万维网中心网站上的材料，以及一本文献完整的书。