BE/CNH: Predicting the Dynamics of Human-Dominated Landscapes: Metapopulation Models for Ecosystems with Sharp Edges

景观越来越多地改变了人类活动在世界范围内，预测本地生物对人类主导的景观的反应，需要了解生态和社会经济过程是如何受到土地利用，栖息地破碎化，以及本地和人类改变的地区之间形成的明显界限。 该项目的目的是建立一个国际性的跨学科研究团队，致力于构建在人类主导的景观中将社会和生态系统联系起来的模型。 该研究小组将通过纳入生态和人类系统的层次性来扩展集合种群模型的实用价值。 具体而言，研究将集中在多个空间尺度上的集合种群过程，斑块和基质类型的异质性，以及景观的时间动态。人类极大地改变了生态景观的物理和生物特征，通常对本地物种产生不利影响。 预测人类活动对本地动植物群植物群的影响将有助于就土地使用规划和保护工作作出更知情的决定。 传统上，生态模型设计来预测生物体的干扰反应一直是不完整的，因为他们忽略了导致景观变化的社会经济过程。 该项目将侧重于明确地将生态系统的动态与社会和经济系统联系起来，这些系统决定了人类主导的景观变化的类型和幅度。 作为这项研究的结果，将制定模型，可以导致增强预测物种反应的能力，并规定适当的战略，以尽量减少人类活动的负面影响。 该项目是2001财政年度环境中生物复杂性特别竞赛的一个奖项，重点是耦合自然和人类系统的动力学。

Landscapes increasingly are altered by human activity worldwide, and predicting the response of native organisms to human-dominated landscapes requires an understanding of how ecological and socio-economic processes are influenced by land use, habitat fragmentation, and the sharp boundaries formed between native and human-altered areas. The purpose of the project is to build an international, interdisciplinary research team devoted to constructing models that link social and ecological systems in human-dominated landscapes. The research team will extend the practical value of metapopulation models by incorporating the hierarchical nature of ecological and human systems. Specifically, research will focus on metapopulation processes operating at multiple spatial scales, heterogeneity of patch and matrix types, and temporal dynamics of landscapes.Humans dramatically alter the physical and biological characteristics of ecological landscapes, often with adverse consequences for native species. Predicting the impacts of human activities on native fauna and flora will enable more informed decisions to be made regarding land-use planning and conservation efforts. Traditionally, ecological models designed to predict the responses of organisms to disturbance have been incomplete because they have ignored the socio-economic processes that lead to landscape change. This project will focus on explicitly linking the dynamics of ecological systems with the social and economic systems that determine the type and magnitude of change in human-dominated landscapes. As a result of this research, models will be formulated that can lead to an enhanced ability to predict species responses and prescribe appropriate strategies to minimize negative consequences of human activity. This project is an award emanating from the FY2001 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.