Two Projects in Decision and Preference Theory

这项提案计划从两个方面扩展人们如何做出经济决策的理论。第一个项目关注的是对多样性的偏好，这一点通常被忽视。我们计划通过调查偏好取决于商品潜在特征的方式来研究这种偏好。我们将设计一种选择结构，从该结构中，特征被派生为表示个人选择的主观因素。这将允许对该理论进行经验测试和评估。我们还计划确定对商品的偏好类别，这类偏好可以通过对满足凹陷等条件的特征的偏好来产生。第二个项目进一步发展了对灵活性和承诺的偏好理论，并将模拟不可预见的行为。通过这种方式，我们将尝试解释多重诱惑、妥协和内疚等事情。有些行动是不可预见的，这一事实是事件不可预见的双重观念的自然延伸。第二个项目将对一个关键的、迄今相对未被探索的不确定因素进行全面分析。

This proposal plans to extend the theory of how people make economic decisions in two ways. The first project focuses on the preference for variety, which is usually ignored. We plan to study this preference by investigating the way in which preferences depend on the underlying characteristic of the goods. We will devise a choice structure from which characteristics are derived as subjective elements in the representation of individual choices. This will allow empirical testing and estimation of the theory. We also plan to identify the class of preferences over goods that can be generated by preferences over characteristics that satisfy conditions like concavity. Such class is larger than the set of neoclassical utilities, but still a restricted set.The second project further develops the theory of preference for flexibility and commitment, and will model unforeseen actions. In this way, we will try to explain things such as multiple temptations, compromise and guilt. The fact that some actions are unforeseen is a natural extension of the dual idea that events are unforeseen. This second project will provide a complete analysis of a crucial and so far relatively unexplored source of uncertainty.