Two Projects in Decision and Preference Theory

这项提案计划从两个方面扩展人们如何做出经济决策的理论。第一个项目关注的是对多样性的偏好，这一点通常被忽视。我们计划通过调查偏好取决于商品的基本特征的方式来研究这种偏好。我们将设计一个选择结构，从这个结构中，特征被认为是个体选择表征中的主观要素。这将允许对理论进行实证检验和估计。我们还计划识别对商品的偏好类别，这些偏好可以由对满足条件的特征的偏好产生，比如对商品的偏好。这个类比新古典效用集大，但仍然是一个受限的集合。第二个项目进一步发展了灵活性和承诺偏好理论，并将对不可预见的行为进行建模。 通过这种方式，我们将试图解释诸如多重诱惑、妥协和内疚之类的事情。有些行动是不可预见的，这一事实是事件不可预见这一双重观念的自然延伸。这第二个项目将提供一个关键的，迄今为止相对未探索的不确定性来源的完整分析。

This proposal plans to extend the theory of how people make economic decisions in two ways. The first project focuses on the preference for variety, which is usually ignored. We plan to study this preference by investigating the way in which preferences depend on the underlying characteristic of the goods. We will devise a choice structure from which characteristics are derived as subjective elements in the representation of individual choices. This will allow empirical testing and estimation of the theory. We also plan to identify the class of preferences over goods that can be generated by preferences over characteristics that satisfy conditions like concavity. Such class is larger than the set of neoclassical utilities, but still a restricted set.The second project further develops the theory of preference for flexibility and commitment, and will model unforeseen actions. In this way, we will try to explain things such as multiple temptations, compromise and guilt. The fact that some actions are unforeseen is a natural extension of the dual idea that events are unforeseen. This second project will provide a complete analysis of a crucial and so far relatively unexplored source of uncertainty.