Ambiguity Aversion, Malevolent Nature and Unforeseen Contingencies

歧义厌恶、恶意本性和不可预见的意外情况

• 批准号: 0452477
• 负责人: Aldo Rustichini
• 金额: $ 20.48万
• 依托单位: University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-06-01 至 2010-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0452477&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Ambiguity; Aversion; Malevolent; Nature; Unforeseen

An investor who is considering the purchase of an asset and is evaluating the comparative merits of investing in an American firm versus a firm in Signapore may be inclined to prefer the first, all other things being equal. This is an example of "ambiguity aversion"; even when the financial returns from the two investments are identical, many people will prefer the more familar investment.Recent reseach in empirical and experimental economics has demonstrated that ambiguity aversion appears in many contexts. The standard microeconomic model of decisionmaking under uncertainty cannot explain these results. The PI plans a research program to develop a consistent and tractable model of ambiguity aversion that will combine the various explanations advanced by other scholars into a single framwork. He will then develop testable implications of the model. The goal is to determine whether ambiguity aversion is caused by a desire to eliminate unforseen contingencies, or by a desire to choose the optimal response to the possibility that the worst outcome will occur.This research will lead to a better understanding of how individuals make a wide variety of decisions about investments, saving, and insurance.

在所有其他条件相同的情况下，正在考虑购买资产并评估投资美国公司与新加坡公司的比较优点的投资者可能倾向于选择第一个。 这是“歧义厌恶”的一个例子；即使两种投资的财务回报相同，许多人也会更喜欢更熟悉的投资。最近的实证和实验经济学研究表明，模糊厌恶出现在许多情况下。 不确定性下决策的标准微观经济模型无法解释这些结果。 PI 计划开展一项研究计划，开发一致且易于处理的歧义厌恶模型，将其他学者提出的各种解释结合到一个框架中。 然后他将开发该模型的可测试含义。 目的是确定模糊厌恶是否是由于希望消除不可预见的意外事件，还是希望对最坏结果发生的可能性选择最佳反应而引起。这项研究将有助于更好地理解个人如何做出有关投资、储蓄和保险的各种决策。