Ambiguity Aversion, Malevolent Nature and Unforeseen Contingencies

如果投资者正在考虑购买一项资产，并正在评估投资一家美国公司与一家位于Signapore的公司的比较优势，那么在其他条件相同的情况下，他可能倾向于选择前者。这就是模糊厌恶的一个例子：即使两种投资的财务回报相同，许多人也会倾向于更熟悉的投资。最近的实证和实验经济学研究表明，模糊厌恶在许多情况下都会出现。不确定条件下决策的标准微观经济模型无法解释这些结果。PI计划制定一个研究计划，以开发一个一致的、易于处理的歧义厌恶模型，将其他学者提出的各种解释结合到一个框架中。然后，他将开发该模型的可测试含义。我们的目标是确定模糊厌恶是由消除不可预见的意外事件的愿望引起的，还是由于对最坏结果将发生的可能性选择最佳反应的愿望引起的。这项研究将使人们更好地理解个人如何在投资、储蓄和保险方面做出各种各样的决定。

An investor who is considering the purchase of an asset and is evaluating the comparative merits of investing in an American firm versus a firm in Signapore may be inclined to prefer the first, all other things being equal. This is an example of "ambiguity aversion"; even when the financial returns from the two investments are identical, many people will prefer the more familar investment.Recent reseach in empirical and experimental economics has demonstrated that ambiguity aversion appears in many contexts. The standard microeconomic model of decisionmaking under uncertainty cannot explain these results. The PI plans a research program to develop a consistent and tractable model of ambiguity aversion that will combine the various explanations advanced by other scholars into a single framwork. He will then develop testable implications of the model. The goal is to determine whether ambiguity aversion is caused by a desire to eliminate unforseen contingencies, or by a desire to choose the optimal response to the possibility that the worst outcome will occur.This research will lead to a better understanding of how individuals make a wide variety of decisions about investments, saving, and insurance.