Space Weather: Prediction with Cosmic Rays

本研究旨在利用位于日冕物质抛射（CME）激波锋面下游的宇宙射线密度被抑制的“Forbush衰减”区域，以预测CME到达地球的提前时间约为4-8小时。μ子探测器和中子监测器将用于探测从“Forbush减少”等离子体中逸出的高能粒子的损失锥各向异性。从这些信息中，可以推断出有关太阳喷射方向和范围的有用限制条件。主要的努力将是通过在巴西圣马丁尼奥的南方空间天文台建造一个全尺寸的μ子探测器来缩小覆盖范围的差距，并在他们的网站（www.bartol.udel.edu/~neutronm/）上添加功能，实时显示宇宙射线密度梯度、角各向异性和双向流。

The activities of this proposal are aimed at exploiting the "Forbush decrease", a region of suppressed cosmic ray density located downstream of coronal mass ejection (CME) shock fronts, for the purpose of predicting with a lead time of some 4-8 hours the arrival of a CME at Earth. Muon detectors and neutron monitors will be utilized to detect the loss-cone anisotropy of energetic particles which escape from the "Forbush decrease" plasma. From this information, it is possible to infer useful constraints on the orientation and extent of solar ejecta. The principal efforts will be to close a coverage gap by constructing a full-size muon detector at the Southern Space Observatory, in Sao Martinho, Brazil, and to add features to their website (www.bartol.udel.edu/~neutronm/) giving real-time graphical displays of cosmic ray density gradients, angular anisotropies, and bi-directional flows.