Money, Interest, and the Channels of Monetary Transmission

货币、利息和货币传输渠道

• 批准号: 0213461
• 负责人: Peter Ireland
• 金额: $ 24.68万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-07-15 至 2006-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0213461&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Money; Interest; Channels; Monetary; Transmission

How diverse are the channels through which monetary policy actions impact on the economy? Can the overall stance of monetary policy be summarized simply by examining the behavior of the short-term nominal interest rate? Or do changes in the money stock matter as well? These questions--the ones to be addressed in this research project--have implications, not just for the specification of popular macroeconomic models, but also for the way in which US macroeconomic policy may have to be conducted in the not-too-distant future. The starting point for addressing these questions is a benchmark model of the monetary transmission mechanism, variants of which appear throughout the recent literature on monetary policy and its effects on the economy. This benchmark model assumes that the impact of monetary policy on output comes exclusively through the effects that policy has on the short-term nominal interest rate. Changes in the money stock can matter for the behavior of output, but only to the extent that those changes in money affect the interest rate first. The project considers two sets of modifications to this benchmark model, both of which imply that changes in the money stock play a more important, direct role in the transmission mechanism. The first modifications introduce direct effects of money through nonseparabilities in a representative household's utility function. The second--and more extensive--modifications permit money to become a component of private-sector wealth in a way that the benchmark model does not. In this second modified model, a Pigouvian real balance effect arises, allowing monetary policy to influence the economy even after the nominal interest rate hits its zero lower bound. A distinguishing feature of this research project is that each of the models considered will be estimated with formal econometric techniques; statistical hypothesis tests will then be used to discriminate between competing views of the monetary transmission mechanism.

货币政策行动对经济影响的渠道有多多样化？单纯考察短期名义利率的表现，就能概括货币政策的总体立场吗？或者，货币存量的变化也很重要吗？这些问题--也就是本研究项目要解决的问题--不仅对流行的宏观经济模型的规范有影响，而且对美国宏观经济政策在不太遥远的未来可能不得不采取的方式也有影响。解决这些问题的起点是货币传导机制的基准模型，其变体出现在最近关于货币政策及其对经济影响的文献中。这一基准模型假设，货币政策对产出的影响完全是通过政策对短期名义利率的影响来实现的。货币存量的变化可能会对产出行为产生影响，但只有在这些货币变化首先影响利率的情况下才会如此。该项目考虑了对这一基准模型的两组修改，这两组修改都意味着货币存量的变化在传导机制中发挥着更重要、更直接的作用。第一个修正通过代表性家庭效用函数的不可分割性引入了货币的直接效应。第二个--也是更广泛的--修改允许资金以基准模型所不具备的方式成为私营部门财富的一部分。在第二个修正的模型中，庇古实际平衡效应出现，允许货币政策影响经济，即使在名义利率触及零下限之后。这项研究项目的一个显著特点是，所考虑的每个模型都将使用正式的计量经济学技术进行估计；然后将使用统计假设检验来区分货币传导机制的相互竞争的观点。