Constructing Hybrid Models for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Evaluation

构建宏观经济预测和政策评估的混合模型

• 批准号: 9985763
• 负责人: Peter Ireland
• 金额: $ 11.71万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-04-01 至 2002-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9985763&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Constructing; Hybrid; Models; Macroeconomic; Forecasting

This research project takes as its principal objective the development of a new class of macroeconomic models to be used in forecasting and in evaluating alternative fiscal and monetary policies. Each of these models will be built around an analytic framework that meets the high standards for theoretical rigor and internal consistency demanded by academic economists, but will remain detailed and flexible enough to be used in the forecasting and simulation exercises demanded by policymakers. By combining the power of models currently used by academics with the flexibility of models currently used by policymakers, the hybrids developed here will exploit the strengths of both types of existing macroeconomic models.

该研究项目的主要目标是开发一种新的宏观经济模型，用于预测和评估替代财政和货币政策。每一个模型都将围绕一个分析框架建立，该框架既要满足学术经济学家对理论严谨性和内部一致性的高标准要求，又要保持足够的详细性和灵活性，以便在决策者要求的预测和模拟练习中使用。通过将学术界目前使用的模型的力量与政策制定者目前使用的模型的灵活性相结合，本文开发的混合模型将利用这两种现有宏观经济模型的优势。