A New Approach to Bilateral Trade Patterns and Balances

双边贸易模式和平衡的新途径

• 批准号: 0214378
• 负责人: David Weinstein
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-09-15 至 2008-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0214378&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: New; Approach; Bilateral; Trade; Patterns

This project implements for the first time on world trade data a model that appropriately predicts bilateral trade in both homogeneous and differentiated goods according to the distinct logic of trade in each. This study examines bilateral exports for 30 industries and 61 countries. This study takes as a maintained assumption that there are two types of goods: the differentiated goods contemplated in the conventional gravity framework and a set of homogeneous goods. The methodological contribution in this study will be the development of a procedure to identify each of the two types of goods and to predict the trade patterns in each. This is undertaken in the context of maximum likelihood estimation. The results will provide a better understanding of the determinants of bilateral trade patterns and balances. An improved model of bilateral trade may also be important for consideration of many problems for which the gravity framework has been a key input. Finally, one output of this project will be the program used to compute the bilateral trade patterns, so that others can easily apply the methodology.

该项目首次对世界贸易数据实施了一个模型，该模型根据每种商品的不同贸易逻辑，适当预测了同质商品和差异商品的双边贸易。 本研究考察了30个行业和61个国家的双边出口。 本研究假设有两种类型的商品：传统引力框架中的差异化商品和一组同质商品。本研究在方法上的贡献将是制定一个程序，以确定这两类货物中的每一类，并预测每一类货物的贸易模式。这是在最大似然估计的背景下进行的。研究结果将有助于更好地了解双边贸易格局和平衡的决定因素。改进的双边贸易模式对于考虑引力框架一直是关键投入的许多问题也可能很重要。最后，该项目的一个产出将是用于计算双边贸易模式的程序，以便其他人可以很容易地应用该方法。