BE/CNH: Biocomplexity: Integrating Models of Natural and Human Dynamics in Forest Landscapes Across Scales and Cultures

现在很少有生态系统不受人类的广泛影响，但人们对人类活动影响生态系统的方式及其对人类行为的相互影响知之甚少。该研究项目的主要目标是开发将森林生态系统动态与人类决策相结合的综合模型。该项目侧重于两个主要组成部分及其相互作用：(1)森林生态系统的结构和功能；(2)影响森林生态系统结构和功能的人类行为。森林结构模型将分层排列，从树木生长和分布的动态开始，一直到林分和景观尺度。森林覆盖率的变化影响生态过程和功能，导致水量和水质发生可预见的变化。将使用多主体模型模拟人类行为，并将通过描述人类活动对森林和水文系统功能的不同形式干扰的链接，以及通过从森林和水文模型接收关于这种行动的影响的反馈，将人类行为与森林模型联系起来。有关推动人类决策的价值观的信息将通过经验性的社会科学研究，包括调查问卷获得。将对自然和人类耦合系统的动力学进行数学分析，以确定由于人类和自然系统的相互作用而产生的复杂行为(如振荡和“混沌”)。该项目将研究四个研究区域的自然-人类系统相互作用：德克萨斯州的三一河绿地走廊和大锡克特，以及委内瑞拉的卡帕罗森林和伊玛塔卡保护区。已经为第一个这样的地点收集了大量数据，使其成为该项目的试验台。这项为期两年的试点研究将测试模拟森林动态的可行性，因为它们受到人类决策的相互影响，并将开始将研究扩展到更大的研究区域。将模型应用于委内瑞拉文化和生态环境差异很大的地点，将展示这种方法在理解人与自然耦合系统方面的普遍性。这一研究结果将为更好地定量理解人类活动与森林动态之间的相互作用提供更好的量化理解。这种加深的理解将为土地所有者、其他利益攸关方和政策制定者提供可靠的信息，了解他们的决定对当地生态系统未来的组成、结构和功能的影响。因此，它将有助于对私人选择和公共政策对人类系统所嵌入并与之相互作用的自然系统的长期后果进行更有见地的分析。该项目得到了2002财年环境中生物复杂性特别竞赛的一个奖项的支持，该竞赛的重点是自然和人类耦合系统的动力学。

Few ecosystems are now free of extensive human influence, but the ways that human activity affects ecosystems such systems and their reciprocal effects on human behavior are poorly understood. The major objective of this research project is to develop integrated models that couple forest ecosystem dynamics to human decision making. The project focuses on two major components and their interaction: (1) the structure and functions of forest ecosystems; and (2) the human behaviors that affect forest ecosystem structure and functions. The models of forest structure will be hierarchically arrayed, beginning with the dynamics of tree growth and distribution and work up to the stand and landscape scales. Changes in forest cover affect ecological processes and functions, leading to predictable changes in water quantity and quality. Human behaviors will be simulated using multi-agent models, and they will be coupled to the forest models through linkages that describe different forms of disturbance of human activities on forest and hydrologic system functions and by receiving feedbacks about the effects of such actions from the forest and hydrological models. Information about the values driving human decision making will be obtained through empirical social-science research, including survey questionnaires. The dynamics of the coupled natural and human systems will be analyzed mathematically to identify complex behavior (such as oscillations and "chaos") resulting from the interaction of the human and natural systems. The project will examine natural-human system interactions in four study areas: the Trinity River Greenbelt corridor and the Big Thicket in Texas and the Caparo Forest and Imataca Reserve in Venezuela. Considerable data already has been gathered for the first of these sites, permitting it to serve as a test bed for the project. This two-year pilot study will test the feasibility of modeling forest dynamics as they are reciprocally influenced by human decision making, and it will begin the extension of the research to the larger study areas. Application of the models to the sites in Venezuela, which are very different culturally and ecologically, will demonstrate the generality of this approach to understanding coupled human and natural systems.Results of this research will provide a better quantitative understanding of the interplay between human actions and forest dynamics. This enhanced understanding will give landowners, other stakeholders, and policy makers reliable information about the impact of their decisions on the future composition, structure, and functionality of local ecosystems. It will thereby facilitate a more informed analysis of the long-term consequences of private choices and public policies on the natural systems in which human systems are embedded and with which they interact. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2002 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.