Collaborative Research: Novel Ensemble Based North Atlantic Diagnostics

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Coupled climate models require dynamically consistent and accurate ocean modules. Climate projections are expected to require some degree of parameterization for the eddy component of ocean flows well into the future. The objective of this project is to contribute to ocean eddy parameterization by means of novel examinations of ensembles of ocean simulations. Ensemble approaches are common in climate modeling but have not been employed for studying the ocean dynamics. A North Atlantic ensemble with a particular focus on the Gulf Stream will be analyzed and contrasted with the interior of the North Atlantic. The Gulf Stream exhibits exceptional dynamical features and is expected to highlight the benefits of novel approaches provided by ensembles. The North Atlantic interior eddy field is expected to take on very different, detectable characteristics. The outcomes of this project are expected to improve understanding of eddy parameterizations in both ocean and climate models.The Intellectual Merit of the proposal lies in the development of the theory behind quantitative ensemble analysis and its application to a collection of North Atlantic simulations. The techniques will be ported to the analysis of several North Atlantic regions differing in their leading order dynamics. This analysis will clarify the various roles of the eddy field within the global ocean.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.