Sensitivity of Persistence Characteristics of Atmospheric Weather Regimes

该项目将量化和解释大气流动状况的时空特征的相关性，重点是具有非高斯分布的事件。预计这项工作将有助于理解低频大气变率和极端天气的变化，以及这些事件对气候强迫的微小变化的敏感性。将采用一系列数值模式，从斜压、准地转方案到简化的全球气候模式。这一新策略将被应用于通过概率密度函数来研究人为强迫(如二氧化碳加倍)对区域持续时间的影响。这个项目涉及一个可能提供有关极端天气条件及其如何影响气候系统的有用信息的主题。预计这一结果将有助于预测持续政权的瓦解，并与整个社会有关，以减轻异常天气条件的影响。作为本研究的一部分开发的统计和诊断工具将向科学界提供。

This project will quantify and interpret the dependence of the spatial and temporal characteristics of atmospheric flow regimes, focusing on events bearing non-gaussian distributions. The work is expected to contribute to the understanding of low-frequency atmospheric variability and changes in weather extrema, and the sensitivity of such events to small variations in climate forcing. A hierarchy of numerical models will be employed, ranging from a baroclinic, quasi-geostrophic scheme to a simplified global climate model. This novel strategy will be applied to investigate the anthropogenic forcing (such as the doubling of carbon dioxide) on regime persistence time via probability density functions. This project addresses a topic likely to provide useful information on extreme weather conditions, and how they impact the climate system. It is anticipated that the results will be of interest to forecasting the breakdown of persistent regimes, and be relevant to society at large for mitigating the effects of unusual weather conditions. Statistical and diagnostic tools developed as part of this study will be made available to the scientific community.