Sensitivity of Persistence Characteristics of Atmospheric Weather Regimes

该项目将量化和解释大气流动状态的时空特征的依赖性，重点关注具有非高斯分布的事件。预计这项工作将有助于了解低频大气变率和极端天气的变化，以及此类事件对气候强迫微小变化的敏感性。将采用一系列数值模式，从斜压、准地转模式到简化的全球气候模式。这种新策略将通过概率密度函数应用于研究人为强迫（如二氧化碳加倍）对状态持续时间的影响。本项目探讨的主题可能提供有关极端天气条件及其如何影响气候系统的有用信息。预计这些结果将对预测持续政权的崩溃感兴趣，并与整个社会有关，以减轻异常天气条件的影响。作为这项研究的一部分开发的统计和诊断工具将提供给科学界。

This project will quantify and interpret the dependence of the spatial and temporal characteristics of atmospheric flow regimes, focusing on events bearing non-gaussian distributions. The work is expected to contribute to the understanding of low-frequency atmospheric variability and changes in weather extrema, and the sensitivity of such events to small variations in climate forcing. A hierarchy of numerical models will be employed, ranging from a baroclinic, quasi-geostrophic scheme to a simplified global climate model. This novel strategy will be applied to investigate the anthropogenic forcing (such as the doubling of carbon dioxide) on regime persistence time via probability density functions. This project addresses a topic likely to provide useful information on extreme weather conditions, and how they impact the climate system. It is anticipated that the results will be of interest to forecasting the breakdown of persistent regimes, and be relevant to society at large for mitigating the effects of unusual weather conditions. Statistical and diagnostic tools developed as part of this study will be made available to the scientific community.