The Great Escape: The Industrial Revolution in Theory and in History

大逃亡：理论和历史上的工业革命

• 批准号: 0241376
• 负责人: Gregory Clark
• 金额: $ 11.05万
• 依托单位: University of California-Davis
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-06-01 至 2006-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0241376&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Great; Escape; Industrial; Revolution; Theory

There have been only two basic economic regimes in history. Until perhaps 1800 all societies were in the Malthusian regime with slow productivity growth, and fertility-determined living standards. Then came the Industrial Revolution and the world of modern growth, with rapid and persistent productivity gains. Recently economists have constructed many theoretical models to explain this transition. A void exists, however, between theory and empirics. While models have multiplied, we are still ignorant of the economic aggregates for any country before 1830. Even in England, the best-documented pre-industrial economy, there are no national income estimates before 1700. Those for 1700-1860 are weakly based, and were last significantly improved in 1985. The materials exist, however, to estimate all the major economic aggregates for England to 1260, including skilled and unskilled wages, land rents, capital returns, real output, output per capita, factor shares, aggregate Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth rates, TFP growth for many sectors of the economy, and tax revenues. English institutional stability allowed much better survival of records than elsewhere. And many of these materials are accessible because of earlier incomplete efforts to assemble price and wage histories of England, such as those of Rogers and Beveridge. This project completes that task. The investigator has been working on estimating these aggregates for a number of years. He has completed papers on many of the components needed: agricultural wages (1210-1869), house rents (1550-1869), the housing stock (1550- 1869), farmland rents (1210-1869), prices for 22 farm outputs (1500-1869), returns on capital (1150-1869), days worked per worker (1560-1869). This project would seek first the completion of the required series, adding fresh archival information where necessary. Second it will put them together to form the national aggregates. The resulting series, the national economic aggregates for England all the way from 1260 to 1860, as well as the underlying data, will be made available to scholars through a web page. The preliminary estimates are surprising. The break in TFP productivity growth rates circa 1770 is much less dramatic than has been assumed. More dramatic accelerations in TFP growth rates can be observed: first around 1600 and second around 1860. Also before 1860 the connection between the underlying rate of technological innovation and TFP advance depended on largely accidental factors. Further there are important changes in variables like rates of return on capital and the skill wage premium long before the Industrial Revolution period.

历史上只有两种基本的经济制度。也许直到1800年，所有社会都处于马尔萨斯政权，生产率增长缓慢，生活水平由生育率决定。然后是工业革命和现代增长世界，生产率迅速而持续地提高。最近，经济学家们构建了许多理论模型来解释这种转变。然而，理论和经验之间存在着一种空白。尽管模型成倍增加，但我们仍然不了解1830年前任何国家的经济总量。即使在英国这个有最好记录的前工业化经济体，在1700年之前也没有国民收入的估计。1700-1860年的指数基础较弱，上一次显著改善是在1985年。然而，现有的材料可以估计英国所有主要经济总量为1260，包括熟练和非熟练工资、土地租金、资本回报、实际产出、人均产出、要素份额、总全要素生产率(TFP)增长率、许多经济部门的TFP增长，以及税收。英国的制度稳定使记录得以比其他地方更好地保存下来。而这些资料中的许多都是可以获得的，因为早先汇编英国价格和工资历史的工作还不完整，比如罗杰斯和贝弗里奇的历史。这个项目完成了这项任务。多年来，研究人员一直致力于估计这些总量。他已经完成了关于许多必要组成部分的论文：农业工资(1210-1869年)、房屋租金(1550-1869年)、住房存量(1550-1869年)、农田租金(1210-1869年)、22个农场产出的价格(1500-1869年)、资本回报率(1150-1869年)、每个工人的工作天数(1560-1869年)。该项目将首先争取完成所需的丛书，必要时增加新的档案资料。其次，它将把它们放在一起，形成国家总量。由此产生的一系列数据，即英国从1260年到1860年的全国经济总量，以及基本数据，将通过一个网页向学者提供。初步估计数字令人惊讶。1770年左右全要素生产率增长率的突破远没有人们想象的那么戏剧性。可以观察到全要素生产率增长率的更戏剧性的加速：第一次在1600年左右，第二次在1860年左右。同样在1860年之前，技术创新的基本速度和全要素生产率进步之间的联系在很大程度上依赖于偶然因素。此外，早在工业革命时期之前，资本回报率和技能工资溢价等变量就已经发生了重要变化。